Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

The paper presents a global model for analysis and projections. The model features a handful of elements that make it suitable for analyzing three broad sets of topics; first, systemic risk and its transmission to country risk premiums; second, the transmission from country risk premiums to demand-related variables such as the output gap, the trade balance, and unemployment; and third, the transmission from commodity prices to country inflation. The model incorporates one systemic risk channel and two foreign channels, specifically, a foreign aggregate demand channel and a foreign exchange rate channel. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods. In addition, the effect of risk on aggregate demand is calibrated with the aid of a VAR. Among the results are that the episodes of surges in systemic risk identified in the paper were transmitted to country risk premiums and aggregate demand--related variables; that the effect of systemic risk shocks on world economic activity is large, and that the busts in the world output gap correspond with the major financial events identified by the estimated time series for the unobserved systemic risk. In addition, systemic risk shocks are important drivers of output gaps while country risk premium shocks can have important effects on the trade balance. Surprisingly, commodity prices, in particular the price of oil, are shown to be demand driven; hence, demand related factors may play a nontrivial role in explaining noncore inflation. The model performed well at one-and four-quarter horizons compared to a survey of analysts' forecasts. In addition, systemic risk shocks were important at explaining the forecast variance of the world output gap, country output gaps, the price of oil, and country risk premiums. The breath of reach of systemic risk shocks back the efforts for financial surveillance with a systemic focus. JEL classification: F32; F37: F41; F31; F47; E58 Abstract ……………………………………………………………………………………………,,,……………. 2

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Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting Based, Decision Support System Application for Alternative Confusion Reduction Strategy in Smartphone Purchases

Atmojo

Anindito

Pardamean

et al. 2014

American Journal of Applied Sciences

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Consumer confusion is a phenomena when the consumer experiencing several confusion problems when she/he should to purchase products/services. Usually, consumer will do a strategy to coping the confusion, that strategy is known as Confusion Reduction Strategy. The conventional ways usually taken by the consumer to reduce the confusion are, such as: Asking for product recommendation to close relatives, seeking for an additional product information on the internet and so on. However, suggestions and recommendations from conventional sources obtained by the consumer, sometimes are not always accurate (not objective) and time consuming (inefficient). Therefore, this research proposes a Decision Support System (DSS) application to cope with the confusion. In this study, the comparison results between conventional methods (such as: Asking advice to close relatives or seeking for an additional information on the internet) with the proposed method (the DSS) were presented. In addition, another implication of this study is to get the factors that causing consumer confusion in case of smartphone purchases. This research used mixed-method approach, implemented through interview and survey. Research samples were 136 potential smartphone buyers which are converted to 27 smartphone buyers; brand image is the main source of consumer confusion (mean 3.98, std. dev 0.86), followed by proliferation of brands, services and models of smartphone products (mean 3.89, std. dev 0.82). Respondents often use Word of Mouth (WoM) communication as main source of information to reduce the confusion, results of 16 from 27 transactions were contributed from WoM. DSS application contributed only 2 of 27 smartphone transactions. Further research for the development of mobile based DSS application as an alternative conventional CRS needs to be conducted, because of the potential success of static desktop based DSS application in reducing potential consumer confusion especially for value oriented buyers.

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Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

Cited by 3 publications

References 13 publications

Monetary Policy Transmission in a Model of the Philippine Economy

Monetary Policy Transmission in a Model of the Philippine Economy

Systemic risk, aggregate demand, and commodity prices

Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting Based, Decision Support System Application for Alternative Confusion Reduction Strategy in Smartphone Purchases

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