Addressing the long- and short-run effects of climate change on major food crops production in Turkey

Abstract

This study assessed the long-run (LR) and short-run (SR) impacts of climatic and non-climatic factors, i.e., CO 2 emissions (CO 2 e), average level of temperature (ALT), average level of precipitation (ALP), area harvested of wheat and rice crops (AHW and (AHR), domestic credit (DCR), and agricultural labor (ALB) on wheat and rice production (WP and RP) in Turkey by using annual time series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 and by employing several econometric techniques. The autoregressive distributed lag-bounds (ARDL) approach and the Johansen and Juselius cointegration (JJC) test confirmed a valid long-term connection among underlying variables. The estimation results from the ARDL model reveal that climatic factors such as CO 2 emissions and temperature adversely affected wheat production in the long run as well as in the short run, whereas precipitation positively improved wheat production in both periods. Further results indicate that non-climatic factors like area harvested of wheat and domestic credit positively and significantly enhanced wheat production in the long run and short run. Similarly, CO 2 emissions also adversely affected rice production in both periods, while temperature and precipitation positively contributed towards rice production in both cases. In addition, area harvested of rice positively and significantly boosted rice production in the long run as well as in the short run, while domestic credit negatively influenced rice production in the long run but in the short run positively improved rice production. Additionally, the outcomes of the VECM Granger Causality for both rice and wheat production confirm that both climatic and non-climatic variables have a strong influence on the production of both crops. This study found that climate change has a deleterious influence on both wheat and rice production; therefore, the study suggests that temperature-resistant varieties of both crops should be developed and introduced by agricultural research institutions. In addition to this, up-to-date information is more needed related to climate change, and in the farming communities, it should be provided by agricultural extension workers.

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Evidence from Major Crop Production in India

“…By following previous studies (Chandio et al, 2020; Jan et al, 2021; Janjua et al, 2014), the study incorporates one control variable: Area under crop along with the climatic variables in the model. Following the recent studies (Abbas, 2022; Chandio et al, 2021; Praveen & Sharma, 2020a), this study constructed the following model to analyse the impact of climate change on the production of selected crops. Equation (1) shows the panel regression model used in the study.…”

“…Zafar et al (2020) analysed the impact of climate change on the production of food grains in India from 1986 to 2017, by using ARDL, the results revealed that in the long run, food grain production is positively affected by rainfall and negatively affected by temperature. Chandio et al (2021), by employing ARDL bounds testing for the period 1965–2015 in India, found that in the long run, cereal production is positively affected by rainfall and carbon dioxide emissions, whereas negatively affected by temperature. Saravanakumar (2015), by using Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) models, examined the impact of climate change on food crops in Tamil Nadu, India, and found that temperature and rainfall initially increase the crop yield, and the increasing temperature and changing rainfall pattern significantly reduce the food crop yield.…”

Determinants of Barley Output Supply Response in Ethiopia: Application of Ardl Bound Cointegration Approach

“…Equally, Chandio, et al [44] in their study on the relationship between climatic and wheat production in Turkey reported that rainfall has exerted a positive influence on wheat production in the long-run, although insignificant. The result implies that a 1% increase in precipitation level would lead to an increase in wheat production by 0.06% in the long-run.…”

Towards a sustainable food production: modelling the impacts of climate change on maize and soybean production in Ghana

“…The use of econometric models to investigate the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity is comparatively modern, with only a few studies on this subject. Chandio et al ( 2021 ) studied the long- and short-run effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on wheat and rice output in Turkey using the ARDL technique and the Johansen and Juselius cointegration (JJC) model. Both climatic and non-climatic variables have a considerable impact on crop output, according to the research.…”