Adjusting the lens of invasion biology to focus on the impacts of climate-driven range shifts

Abstract

As Earth's climate rapidly changes, species range shifts are considered key to species persistence. However, some range-shifting species will alter community structure and ecosystem processes. By adapting existing invasion risk assessment frameworks, we can identify characteristics shared with high-impact introductions and thus predict potential impacts. There are fundamental differences between introduced and range-shifting species, primarily shared evolutionary histories between range shifters and their new community. Nevertheless, impacts can occur via analogous mechanisms, such as wide dispersal, community disturbance and low biotic resistance. As ranges shift in response to climate change, we have an opportunity to develop plans to facilitate advantageous movements and limit those that are problematic.

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

“…TA was developed to quantify change that emerges from both direct and indirect effects and that are not amenable to traditional time-series methods. Effects of climate change are increasingly apparent, including shifts in phenology 36 and species range limits 37 , 38 . By contrast, the time series of species-abundance data typically lack a clear signal 16 , 39 , 40 .…”

Coasting along to a wider range: niche conservatism in the recent range expansion of the Tawny Coster, Acraea terpsicore (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)

“…Note we follow the definition of Wallingford et al. (2020) for invasive species, which is “an introduced species (i.e. a non‐native species transported to a new ecosystem by humans intentionally or unintentionally) that causes negative ecological, economic or environmental impacts”.…”

“…Here, we investigate the climatic niche for a range‐shifting species, the Tawny Coster Acraea terpsicore (Linnaeus), and its geographic pattern of spread, particularly in Australia. A range‐shifting species is “a species tracking its environmental niche through a range expansion or relocation beyond its historical native range” (Wallingford et al., 2020). Acraea terpsicore was until recently considered endemic to the Indian subcontinent (India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka – Chowdhury et al., 2017; Larsen, 2004; van der Poorten & van der Poorten, 2016; Wynter‐Blyth, 1957), but during the past few decades it has naturally and rapidly expanded its geographic range, with chronological records from the following countries (years): Thailand (1984–1988: Nishimura, 1994; Takanishi, 1988; West, 1996), Nepal (<1989: Smith, 1989), Malay Peninsula (1992: Arshad et al., 1996), Vietnam (1992: Nishimura, 1994; Pierre & Bernaud, 1997), China (Hainan) (1994: Chou, 1994; Huang, 2002), Singapore (2006: Khew, 2008), Indonesia (2008–2011: Braby et al., 2014a; Matsumoto et al., 2012), Timor‐Leste (2012: Braby, Bertelsmeier, et al., 2014), Australia (2012: Braby, Bertelsmeier, et al., 2014; Braby, Thistleton & Neal, 2014; Sanderson et al., 2012), Laos (2012: Nakamura & Wakahara, 2012); Pakistan (2012: Mal et al., 2014), Cambodia (2013: Braby, Thistleton, & Neal, 2014), Bhutan (2014: Nidup, 2015) and Malaysian Borneo (2016: Abang et al., 2017).…”

Fuzzy sets allow gaging the extent and rate of species range shift due to climate change

“…Throughout the last century, and especially over the last few decades, there have been global alterations leading to a warmer climate 7 with widespread effects on biological systems [8][9][10] . This recent climate change has already caused expansions, reductions, or shifts in the distribution of many species [11][12][13][14] . In particular, climate shifts are modifying the margins of species distributions over short periods of time, a process that is more marked in vagile species such as birds 15,16 .…”

“…In general, it is only in recent decades that studies have addressed the reaction of birds to climate change in relation to modifications in their distribution 17 – 19 and phenology 20 – 22 . These modifications are relevant not only for the species undergoing the changes, but also for the species residing in the new receiving areas 14 . Distribution changes ultimately affect community composition, which adds uncertainty to the future status of natural populations and forces changes in species management and conservation programs 23 , 24 .…”