Adjusting to current climate threats and building alternative future scenarios for the Rio de la Plata coast and estuarine front, Uruguay

Abstract

Two types of adaptation are identified. Type I Adaptation is the everyday adaptation to weather and climate that has always been a feature of human life. Type II Adaptation is the adaptation mandated under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Type I Adaptation is promoted as part of sustainable development. Type II Adaptation relates to anthropogenic climate change and is subject to the rules and practices under the Convention. The two types of adaptation are similar but not identical. Type I Adaptation has traditionally assumed a stationary climate. In Type II Adaptation the climate is changing and the international community has a cost-sharing responsibility under the UNFCCC. There is a need to bring about a single seamless process of adaptation. Type I Adaptation has not been working very successfully. Losses from extreme weather and climaterelated events are rising rapidly. This failure of current adaptation to keep pace with development is called the adaptation deficit. Type II Adaptation could be developed under the Convention to help eradicate the adaptation deficit. This would require the development of a more formal adaptation regime under the Convention similar to the mitigation (Kyoto) regime that already exists. The paper concludes that: 1. There is an unacceptably large and growing adaptation deficit; 2. The deficit can be more effectively addressed by combining the Climate Convention work with the development process and mainstreaming climate risk; and 3. By developing a more coherent and operational adaptation regime we can have more confidence that the efforts we collectively make will be rewarded with success.

Long-term morphological evolution of urban pocket beaches in Montevideo (Uruguay): impacts of coastal interventions and links to climate forcing

“…The existence of a relationship between the floods of the Paraná and Uruguay rivers, individually and combined, with the Río de la Plata level at Montevideo was explored, since floods trigger sea level fluctuations (Bidegain et al, 2005;Nagy et al, 2005) and according to recent studies (Nagy et al, 2013(Nagy et al, , 2014b(Nagy et al, , 2015, these fluctuations may be in the range of 10-20 cm. This influence of river inflow on SLR is explained by the local effect of a close mouth of a great river (Nicholls et al, 2011) such as the Río de la Plata (Nagy et al, 2014b). Thus the possibility of a receding shoreline cannot be ruled out.…”

Climate teleconnections and indicators of coastal systems response

“…The chances of success of these initiatives on these beaches could Among the fast climate stressors on the Uruguayan coast, the wave climate change stands out. This change is associated with: i) atmospheric circulation changes likely attributable to global warming (Young et al, 2011); ii) the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation -AMO (Ortega et al, 2013) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation -PDO (Nagy et al, 2014a(Nagy et al, , 2014b; and iii) oscillations associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation -ENSO teleconnections (Bidegain et al, 2015(Bidegain et al, , 2014Nagy et al, 2014aNagy et al, , 2008aNagy et al, , 2008bNagy et al, , 2002. It is not always clear whether these variables are linked to global climate change or natural variability.…”

“…According to our systematic observations of the Uruguayan coast of the RdlP river estuary and Atlantic Ocean since the 1990s, the southern winds play a key role on water and coastal dynamics, but with dissimilar effects depending on the synoptic conditions and fetch associated with wind speed (EcoPlata, 1999;Gutiérrez et al, 2015;López Laborde and Nagy, 1999;MTOP/PNUD/UNESCO, 1979;Nagy et al, 2014aNagy et al, , 2013Nagy et al, , 2008aNagy et al, , 2008bNagy et al, , 2007Nagy et al, , 2005Nagy et al, , 2002Verocai et al, 2015).…”

“…Observations over the last century show a sea level rise (SLR) of 11 cm in Montevideo (Bidegain et al, 2005;Magrín et al, 2007;Nagy et al, 2005) and 17 cm in Buenos Aires as a result of global climate change and the regional effects of river discharge and winds (Barros et al, 2005;Magrín et al, 2007). Periods of acceleration and stabilisation have been recorded at Montevideo from 1971-2003 and 2004-2013 respectively (Nagy et al, 2014a(Nagy et al, , 2005Verocai et al, 2015). The latter was mainly attributed to lower river discharges which could have masked the global trend.…”

“…The well-known El Niño/La Niña -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) linked variability at the Uruguayan coast (Nagy et al, 2014a(Nagy et al, , 2008a(Nagy et al, , 2008b, and medium-term trends have been analysed, resulting in seasonal and biennial variability (Ortega et al, 2013;Simionato et al, 2005) linkable to Rossby waves (Simionato et al, 2007), and another one with a rate of return of 8-12 years, in addition to long cycles of between 70 and 80 years linked to the AMO (Ortega et al, 2013). Gutiérrez et al (2015) have suggested for pocket beaches of Montevideo, a possible relationship between ENSO and fluctuations of beach area.…”