Advanced Air Mobility: Demand Analysis and Market Potential of the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi Markets

Abstract

Advanced air mobility (AAM) is a broad concept enabling consumers access to on-demand air mobility, cargo and package delivery, healthcare applications, and emergency services through an integrated and connected multimodal transportation network. However, a number of challenges could impact AAM’s growth potential, such as autonomous flight, the availability of take-off and landing infrastructure (i.e., vertiports), integration into airspace and other modes of transportation, and competition with shared automated vehicles. This article discusses the results of a demand analysis examining the market potential of two potential AAM passenger markets—airport shuttles and air taxis. The airport shuttle market envisions AAM passenger service to, from, or between airports along fixed routes. The air taxi market envisions a more mature and scaled service that provides on-demand point-to-point passenger services throughout urban areas. Using a multi-method approach comprised of AAM travel demand modeling, Monte Carlo simulations, and constraint analysis, this study estimates that the air taxi and airport shuttle markets could capture a 0.5% mode share. The analysis concludes that AAM could replace non-discretionary trips greater than 45 min; however, demand for discretionary trips would be limited by consumer willingness to pay. This study concludes that AAM passenger services could have a daily demand of 82,000 passengers served by approximately 4000 four- to five-seat aircraft in the U.S., under the most conservative scenario, representing an annual market valuation of the 2.5 billion USD.

Urban Air Mobility: Systematic Review of Scientific Publications and Regulations for Vertiport Design and Operations

“…For comparison, ref. [95] predicted a 0.5% mode share for airport shuttle and air taxi operations in the whole U.S.…”

Learning-Based Fault-Tolerant Control for an Hexarotor with Model Uncertainty

“…We assume a single rigid body on SE(3) 1 with position p ∈ R 3 and orientation matrix R ∈ SO(3). The body-fixed 1 Vectors are denoted with bold characters and matrices with capital letters. The term A i,: denotes the i-th row of the matrix A.…”

“…These vehicles have applications on diverse domains as passenger transport and logistics, infrastructure monitoring, agriculture, early response to natural disasters and emergencies, communications relay, and provision of internet services, among many others. Globally, autonomous aerial vehicles represent a market of approximately USD 4 billion and it is projected that by 2030 will reach USD 24 billion [1].…”

“…The BBVA Foundation accepts no responsibility for the opinions, statements and contents included in the project and/or the results thereof, which are entirely the responsibility of the authors. 1 Leonardo J. Colombo is with the Centre for Automation and Robotics (CSIC-UPM), Ctra. M300 Campo Real, Km 0,200, Arganda del Rey -28500 Madrid, Spain.…”

Intelligent Amphibious Ground-Aerial Vehicles: State of the Art Technology for Future Transportation

“…Though their commercialization is still in the development stage and face several barriers in society problem like weather restrictions, and legal resistance, etc [35], it is still undeniable that they have great potential. One of the relevant studies believes that AAM would generate the annual market with a total value of 2.5 billion USD and carry almost 80 thousand passengers only in the U.S. [36]. With the mature of facilities, the UAM and other vertical mobility (VM) could serve as an brand new means of vehicles in the short-term intercity transportation and replace the train, car and plane [37].…”