Advances and Gaps in Natech Quantitative Risk Analysis

Abstract

The occurrence of Natech (natural hazard triggering technological disasters) accidents has generated a reflection about the need to manage adequately the risk to people, to the environment, and to the infrastructures subjected to natural events. For this reason, academia and industry have increased research in the process safety area in the last decade, strengthening quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methodologies for Natech events. However, these methodologies have some gaps that must be closed for a better decision-making process. In this communication a comparative analysis of the existing Natech QRA approaches is done, to highlight features and differences and to identify main gaps that should be addressed in future research. It can be mentioned that all the analyzed methodologies, which have been applied to floods, earthquakes, and lightning, are based on an initial one developed in 2007. The critical gap is that in all these methodologies, the final step is the risk calculation based on fatalities, and they do not consider the area-wide as an essential element in the risk analysis process.