Advancing bipartisan decarbonization policies: Lessons from state-level successes and failures

Abstract

Political polarization is at a high point in recent U.S. history and may now be the most significant barrier to coordinated national action addressing climate change. Studies of intergroup conflict suggest that collaborations pursuing shared goals can reduce polarization (and also advance the goals). In this spirit, I comprehensively review and characterize successes and failures of state-level climate legislation, focusing on opportunities for bipartisanship. I analyze 356 major state government enacted bills and 372 failed bills--aimed at decarbonization--from 2015 to 2020, as well as the political contexts in which they were passed or defeated. I use bivariate analyses, regressions, and decision trees to explore correlations and partial correlations between the policy characteristics and political contexts of bills, and their passage or failure, their bipartisanship, and the vote shares they received. Key results include: (i) Roughly one third of these state-level decarbonization bills were passed by Republican-controlled governments. (ii) Bipartisan or Republican co-sponsors disproportionately passed voluntary Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) programs, solar incentives, renewable energy portfolio goals, and transportation electrification; Democrat-only sponsors disproportionately passed mandatory Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and emissions standards. (iii) Bills proposed in "purple" states, and those lacking explicit environmental justice components, were disproportionately enacted and bipartisan. Concerning broader framing components, bills that expand consumer or business choice and/or include financial incentives are enacted more often than those that restrict choice. Though climate change is a polarized issue, my results provide tangible insights for future bipartisan successes.