2020
DOI: 10.1177/0022002720969796
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Adverse Rainfall Shocks and Civil War: Myth or Reality?

Abstract: News reports and policymakers frequently link African civil conflicts and wars to agricultural crises caused by droughts. However, empirical studies of the relationship between rainfall and civil conflict or war remain inconclusive. I reexamine this relationship focusing on rainfall over each country’s agricultural land during the growing seasons. I also incorporate that the relationship between rainfall and agricultural output is hump-shaped, as rainfall beyond a threshold decreases output. I find a U-shaped … Show more

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Cited by 10 publications
(14 citation statements)
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“…Following Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti's (2004) seminal study of the effect of rainfall shocks on civil conflict and civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa, several studies of civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa focus on the period since 1980 (e.g. Sandholt Jensen and Skrede Gleditsch, 2009;Bruckner and Ciccone, 2010;Maertens, 2016). The reason is that Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti use a measure of rainfall that has the advantage of incorporating satellite data but is only available since 1979.…”
Section: Results For Sub-saharan Africa Since 1980mentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Following Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti's (2004) seminal study of the effect of rainfall shocks on civil conflict and civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa, several studies of civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa focus on the period since 1980 (e.g. Sandholt Jensen and Skrede Gleditsch, 2009;Bruckner and Ciccone, 2010;Maertens, 2016). The reason is that Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti use a measure of rainfall that has the advantage of incorporating satellite data but is only available since 1979.…”
Section: Results For Sub-saharan Africa Since 1980mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…My measure of rainfall shocks follows Maertens (2016) and is obtained using two different rainfall datasets from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The first dataset is the GPCP rainfall data, which has the advantage of combining gauge and satellite measurements but is only available since 1979.…”
Section: Other Datamentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Over the past decade, research on the impact of climate-related hazards on conflict risk, in particular the likelihood and severity of internal armed conflict, has rapidly expanded. A growing number of studies explore how climate variability influences armed conflict indirectly via shocks to rural living conditions (e.g., [77][78][79][80][81] or through causing food and livestock price changes (e.g., [82][83][84][85]. There is also a vivid academic debate about whether climate-related migration can act as a driver of conflict (e.g., 86, 87).…”
Section: Climate-related Drivers Of Armed Conflict Riskmentioning
confidence: 99%