Aggregate Effects of Budget Stimulus: Evidence from the Large Fiscal Expansions Database

Cohen-Setton, Jeremie; Gornostay, Egor; Ladreit, Colombe

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3426598

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The price in January 2021 rose to $54. 4 and almost reached the forecast values for 2021 of $56/bbl (Fig. 4).…”

Section: Macroeconomic Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 58%

“…In the context of the need to resume economic growth, attention should be paid to the formation of a reliable theoretically grounded foundation for a longterm fiscal policy, which is impossible without changing the economic growth model [4]. At the same time, one should take into account the transformation of measures of the implemented financial policy that took place in different countries of the world [5].…”

Section: Macroeconomic Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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From Surplus to Deficit Fiscal Policy

Afanas'ev

Shash

2021

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

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The article discusses the reasoning associated with the change in the trajectory of the Russian budgetary policy in the current cycle and the substantiation of the forecast values of the main macroeconomic indicators used in the formation of the federal budget. The characteristics and analysis of the dynamics of the volumes of income and expenses are presented. The main theoretical concepts aimed at finding the optimal amount of debt financing for economic growth and the size of public debt are considered. The assessment of measures to balance the Russian budget in the context of the growth of public debt in the context of a decrease in budget revenues. The consequences of an increase in debt financing of the national economy are revealed and the values of indicators of Russia's debt sustainability are calculated.

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“…The price in January 2021 rose to $54. 4 and almost reached the forecast values for 2021 of $56/bbl (Fig. 4).…”

Section: Macroeconomic Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 58%

Section: Macroeconomic Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

From Surplus to Deficit Fiscal Policy

Afanas'ev

Shash

2021

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

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“…Even with an economic recovery under way at the start of 2021, the amount of spare capacity may remain considerable for at least several quarters until pre-pandemic GDP levels have been restored. Until then, the withdrawal of fiscal support could have large effects (Cohen-Setton et al 2019;Ramey 2019). If anything, it would be prudent to backload rather than frontload fiscal consolidation in that environment.…”

Section: Figure 27 Debt Trajectory After Covid-19: Post-covid-19 Debt...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Japans public debt sustainability before and after COVID-19

Cohen-Setton¹

2022

The Sustainability of Asia’s Debt

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“…Leigh et al (2010) and Guajardo et al (2014) find that fiscal consolidations have contractionary effects in advanced economies and argue, from an empirical standpoint, that standard methods used to assess the impact of fiscal consolidations lead to upward biased estimates. Breuer (2019) and Cohen-Setton et al (2019) also warn against the use of methods such as the cyclically adjusted primary balance, although Yang et al (2015) find that it leads to improved results when variables such as asset prices fluctuations and idiosyncratic country-level features of fiscal policy are taken into account. Furthermore, Chatelain and Ralf (2018), among others, highlight that output growth after a fiscal consolidation episode could be explained by accompanying policies such as an exchange rate devaluation, and this argument has been acknowledged by Alesina et al (2018).…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean

Lemaire

2020

SSRN Journal

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The transmission mechanisms of fiscal policy are significantly affected by informality in the labour market. Extending a narrative database of fiscal consolidations in 14 countries from Latin America and the Caribbean between 1989 and 2016 in order to account for heterogeneity in terms of commitment to the reforms, I show that tax-based and spending-based multipliers are both recessionary and do not significantly differ one from another in this region. Furthermore, these multipliers decline in absolute value as the level of labour informality increases in the economy, although evidences are less robust for spending-based consolidations. An analysis of the effects of tax-based consolidations on private demand suggests that labour market informality constitutes a short-term social buffer that attenuates the contractionary effects of this type of policy by increasing investment opportunities through tax evasion and entrepreneurial alternatives to unemployment for dismissed workers.

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Aggregate Effects of Budget Stimulus: Evidence from the Large Fiscal Expansions Database

Cited by 7 publications

References 38 publications

From Surplus to Deficit Fiscal Policy

From Surplus to Deficit Fiscal Policy

Japans public debt sustainability before and after COVID-19

Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean

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