Aggregative effect on rice production due to climate change using index number under indeterminate environment: a case study from Punjab, Pakistan

Aslam, Muhammad

doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03832-5

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…On the other hand, agriculture is signi cantly in uenced by natural and environmental factors and constantly faces production uncertainties (Su et al, 2021;Aslam, 2022). Fluctuations in agricultural production and food supply lead to price variations in these products, which have a negative impact on the nancial situation of farmers, especially those who are poor and vulnerable (Schneider, 2011;Gunawan et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design, simulation and feasibility of the innovative agricultural warehouse receipt system through dynamic programming and agent-based models

Riazi,

Mojaverian,

Laskookalayeh

et al. 2024

Preprint

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To address marketing challenges in the agricultural sector, provide financial support for small-scale farmers over marketing seasons, manage price risks of agricultural products, and enhance the functioning of agricultural mercantile exchanges, it is attainable to implement an efficient and compliant warehouse receipt system (WRS) that aligns with the legal, institutional, social, and economic-financial conditions of a country. The aim of this study is to design, simulate, and assess the feasibility of an innovative WRS in the agricultural sector. To achieve this, a WRS was designed and evaluated for maize crop in Iran. The research methodology of this study is divided into three main parts: design, simulation, and feasibility assessment of the WRS. The design process incorporated the FAO-provided (2009) warehouse receipt system development, considering the experiences of various countries and the institutional and financial regulations specific to Iran. Additionally, a dynamic programming model was used to simulate the system, and an agent-based model was utilized for system feasibility assessment. The study results demonstrated that it is possible to design an innovative and efficient WRS by involving four key actors, including farmers, buyers, mercantile exchange company, and the warehouse (governmental institution), and establishing clear communications among them. Based on simulation results using dynamic programming model, it was evident that four parameters, namely the annualized loan interest rate, the valuation coefficient for loan collateral, price volatility of the product over the marketing season, and the warehouse cost-to-product value ratio, significantly impact the adoption of the WRS by farmers. In conclusion, the findings from the agent-based model revealed that setting the annualized loan interest rate at 8%, a collateral valuation coefficient of 85%, price fluctuations over the non-harvest time at 60%, and a warehouse cost-to-product value ratio of 2% can result in the participation of nearly 100% of farmers in the proposed WRS.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design, simulation and feasibility of the innovative agricultural warehouse receipt system through dynamic programming and agent-based models

Riazi,

Mojaverian,

Laskookalayeh

et al. 2024

Preprint

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show abstract

“…However, agriculture is significantly affected by natural factors such as weather and climate [5], and the supply chain of agricultural products carries the risk of output uncertainty [6]. In practice, farmers' production and operation scales are small, and they are risk-averse to output uncertainty [7,8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural Supply Chain Financing Strategies under the Impact of Risk Attitudes

Bai

Jia

2022

Sustainability

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Bank and e-commerce financing strategies are the main ways for farmers to solve the problem of capital shortage. Aiming at the uncertainty risk of the output of the agricultural product supply chain, we consider the risk attitudes of farmers; construct the Stackelberg game model under different financing strategies to obtain the optimal decision of e-commerce and farmers; and explore the expected output factors, the degree of farmers’ risk aversion, e-commerce’s interest rates on the decision-making results. Our research found that farmers with low-risk aversion prefer to choose the e-commerce financing strategy when the e-commerce’s interest rates are lower. In addition, farmers’ risk-averse attitudes lead to lower equilibrium decision-making between farmers and e-entrepreneurs, which is not conducive to the interests of e-commerce and farmers. A higher expected output factor reduces farmers’ production inputs and e-commerce purchase price. When the expected output factor is low, the decision of whether e-commerce provides financing services to farmers is only affected by interest rates, and lower interest rates create more value for e-commerce.

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Design, simulation and feasibility of the innovative agricultural warehouse receipt system through dynamic programming and agent-based models

Riazi,

Mojaverian,

Shirzadi Laskookalayeh

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

To address marketing challenges in the agricultural sector, provide financial support for small-scale farmers over marketing seasons, manage price risks of agricultural products, and enhance the functioning of agricultural mercantile exchanges, it is attainable to implement an efficient and compliant warehouse receipt system (WRS) that aligns with the legal, institutional, social, and economic-financial conditions of a country. The aim of this study is to design, simulate, and assess the feasibility of an innovative WRS in the agricultural sector. To achieve this, a WRS was designed and evaluated for maize crop in Iran. The research methodology of this study is divided into three main parts: design, simulation, and feasibility assessment of the WRS. The design process incorporated the FAO-provided (2009) warehouse receipt system development, considering the experiences of various countries and the institutional and financial regulations specific to Iran. Additionally, a dynamic programming model was used to simulate the system, and an agent-based model was utilized for system feasibility assessment. The study results demonstrated that it is possible to design an innovative and efficient WRS by involving five key actors, including farmers, buyers (maize traders), banks, mercantile exchange market, and the warehouse (governmental institution), and establishing clear communications among them. Based on simulation results using dynamic programming model, it was evident that four parameters, namely the annualized loan interest rate, the valuation coefficient for loan collateral, price volatility of the product over the marketing season, and the warehouse cost-to-product value ratio, significantly impact the adoption of the WRS by farmers. In conclusion, the findings from the agent-based model revealed that setting the annualized loan interest rate at 8%, a collateral valuation coefficient of 85%, price fluctuations over the non-harvest time at 60%, and a warehouse cost-to-product value ratio of 2% can result in the participation of nearly 100% of farmers in the proposed WRS. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-024-74519-w.

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Aggregative effect on rice production due to climate change using index number under indeterminate environment: a case study from Punjab, Pakistan

Cited by 3 publications

References 38 publications

Design, simulation and feasibility of the innovative agricultural warehouse receipt system through dynamic programming and agent-based models

Design, simulation and feasibility of the innovative agricultural warehouse receipt system through dynamic programming and agent-based models

Agricultural Supply Chain Financing Strategies under the Impact of Risk Attitudes

Design, simulation and feasibility of the innovative agricultural warehouse receipt system through dynamic programming and agent-based models

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