Aggressive and Violent Behavior Among Military Personnel Deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan: Prevalence and Link With Deployment and Combat Exposure

MacManus, Deirdre; Rona, Roberto; Dickson, Hannah; Somaini, Greta; Fear, Nicola T.; Wessely, Simon

doi:10.1093/epirev/mxu006

Cited by 117 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Second, our finding that never-deployed and previously-deployed soldiers had comparably elevated violent crime risk is striking given that recent research has suggested that combat exposure leads to increased violence among soldiers returning from deployment (MacManus et al , 2015). That the RF analysis failing to find evidence of meaningful interactions means that no evidence was found for differences in the strength of associations of predictors among the previously-deployed and never-deployed versus the currently-deployed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Predicting non-familial major physical violent crime perpetration in the US Army from administrative data

et al. 2015

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BACKGROUND Although interventions exist to reduce violent crime, optimal implementation requires accurate targeting. We report the results of an attempt to develop an actuarial model using machine learning methods to predict future violent crimes among U.S. Army soldiers. METHODS A consolidated administrative database for all 975,057 soldiers in the U.S. Army in 2004-2009 was created in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). 5,771 of these soldiers committed a first founded major physical violent crime (murder-manslaughter, kidnapping, aggravated arson, aggravated assault, robbery) over that time period. Temporally prior administrative records measuring socio-demographic, Army career, criminal justice, medical/pharmacy, and contextual variables were used to build an actuarial model for these crimes separately among men and women using machine learning methods (cross-validated stepwise regression; random forests; penalized regressions). The model was then validated in an independent 2011-2013 sample. RESULTS Key predictors were indicators of disadvantaged social/socio-economic status, early career stage, prior crime, and mental disorder treatment. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .80-.82 in 2004-2009 and .77 in a 2011-2013 validation sample. 36.2-33.1% (male-female) of all administratively-recorded crimes were committed by the 5% of soldiers having highest predicted risk in 2004-2009 and an even higher proportion (50.5%) in the 2011-2013 validation sample. CONCLUSIONS Although these results suggest that the models could be used to target soldiers at high risk of violent crime perpetration for preventive interventions, final implementation decisions would require further validation and weighing of predicted effectiveness against intervention costs and competing risks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Predicting non-familial major physical violent crime perpetration in the US Army from administrative data

et al. 2015

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“…Many service members who have been previously deployed experience other mental health conditions or cognitive impairments, such as TBI and related psychiatric comorbidities (Carlson et al, 2010). Additionally, other factors that may also be associated with deployment-such as high propensities of risktaking, impulsivity, and anger (MacManus et al, 2015)-can be indicators of other mental health problems and adverse health-related behaviors, such as suicide ideation and attempts (Hawton et al, 2003;Novaco et al, 2012). Serious mental illnesses often trigger long-term negative health and social outcomes, such as marital instability and even homelessness, and understanding the long-term effects of deployment and combat exposure on mental health is vital to reducing such negative outcomes.…”

Section: Deployment and Mental Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

2015 Department of Defense Health Related Behaviors Survey (HRBS)

Meadows¹,

Engel²,

Collins³

et al. 2018

156

165

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This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1695Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND CorporationR® is a registered trademark. Cover photo credits from top to bottom:Photo by Cpl PrefaceThe Health Related Behaviors Survey (HRBS) is the U.S. Department of Defense's flagship survey for understanding the health, health-related behaviors, and well-being of service members. Originally implemented to assess substance use (i.e., illicit drugs, alcohol, and tobacco), the survey now includes content areas-such as mental and physical health, sexual behavior, and postdeployment problems-that may affect force readiness or the ability to meet the demands of military life. The HRBS is intended to supplement administrative data already collected by the armed forces. In 2014, the Defense Health Agency asked the RAND Corporation to review previous iterations of the HRBS, update survey content, administer a revised version of the survey, and analyze data from the resulting 2015 HRBS of active-duty personnel. The 2015 HRBS included U.S. Air Force, Army, Marine Corps, Navy, and Coast Guard personnel, and this report details the survey methodology and results. No expertise in health, health-related behaviors, or health care is required to read this report. However, it may be of most use to individuals who provide direct care related to the health and health-related behaviors of active-duty service members or who are responsible for making related policy decisions. Additional information can be found in a series of online appendixes.This research was sponsored by the Defense Health Agency and conducted within the Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelli...

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“…Violence perpetration among veterans has emerged as a critical public health concern (MacManus et al, 2015; Sontag and Alvarez, 2008). To date, however, there has been relatively little research investigating factors related to violence among veterans in VA mental health treatment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Associations between PTSD and intimate partner and non-partner aggression among substance using veterans in specialty mental health

Buchholz

Bohnert

Sripada

et al. 2017

Addictive Behaviors

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Background Risk factors of violence perpetration in veterans include substance use and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD); however, it is unknown whether these factors are associated with greater risk for partner or non-partner violence. This study investigated the associations between probable PTSD, heavy drinking, marijuana use, cocaine use, and partner and non-partner violence perpetration. Methods Self-report questionnaires assessing past-year partner and non-partner aggression (CTS2) as well as past-month substance use (SAOM), probable PTSD (PCL-C), and probable depression (PHQ-9) were administered to 810 substance using veterans entering VA mental health treatment. Results In bivariate analyses, probable PTSD in substance using veterans was associated with violence perpetration (partner physical, χ2 = 11.46, p = 0.001, φ = .12; non-partner physical, χ2 = 50.64, p < 0.001, φ = .25; partner injury, χ2 = 6.41, p = 0.011, φ = .09; non-partner injury, χ2 = 42.71, p < 0.001, φ = .23). In multiple logistic regression analyses that adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, probable PTSD was independently associated with non-partner physical (odds ratio [OR], 2.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97 – 4.05) and injury aggression (OR, 3.96; CI, 2.56 – 6.13). Cocaine and heavy drinking were independently associated with non-partner physical and injury aggression and non-partner injury aggression respectively. Conclusions The results provide evidence that probable PTSD, heavy drinking, and cocaine use are associated with increased risk of non-partner violence perpetration in substance using veterans. These results underscore the importance of screening for PTSD symptoms and violence perpetration towards non-partners in substance using veterans presenting for treatment.

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Aggressive and Violent Behavior Among Military Personnel Deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan: Prevalence and Link With Deployment and Combat Exposure

Cited by 117 publications

References 69 publications

Predicting non-familial major physical violent crime perpetration in the US Army from administrative data

Predicting non-familial major physical violent crime perpetration in the US Army from administrative data

2015 Department of Defense Health Related Behaviors Survey (HRBS)

Associations between PTSD and intimate partner and non-partner aggression among substance using veterans in specialty mental health

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