Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective

Abstract

Negative correlations between inflation and demographic aging were observed across developed nations recently. To understand the phenomenon from a politico-economic perspective, we embed the fiscal theory of the price level into an overlapping-generations model. In the model, successive short-lived governments choose income tax rates and bond issues considering the political influence of existing generations and the policy response of future governments. The model sheds new light on the traditional debate about the burden of national debt. Because of price adjustments, the accumulation of government debt does not become a burden on future generations. Our analysis reveals that the effects of aging depend on its causes. Aging is deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity but inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate. Numerical simulation shows that aging over the past 40 years in Japan generated deflation of about 0.6 percentage points annually.

Dealing with an aging China—Delaying retirement or the second-child policy?

“…In totality, aging population has become a major financial burden on for regional governments [8][9][10][11]. In another research study, it was reported that an aging society would lead to a decrease in household saving rate [12][13][14]. Ando and Modigliani (1954) [15] proposed the Life Cycle Theory of Consumption: retirees can sell off their assets to provide for food, housing, and recreation in retirement homes; this would contribute to a dissaving status.…”