Agricultural labor changes and agricultural economic development in China and their implications for rural vitalization

Abstract

Based on panel data from 1991, 2000 and 2010 at the county level in China, this study analyzed the coupling characteristics and spatio-temporal patterns of agricultural labor changes and economic development under rapid urbanization using quantitative and GIS spatial analysis methods. Three primary conclusions were obtained. (1) During 1991-2010, China's agricultural labor at the county level showed a decreasing trend, down 4.91% from 1991 to 2000 and 15.50% from 2000 to 2010. In spatial distribution, agricultural labor force has evolved by decreasing eastward and increasing westward. (2) During 1991-2010, China's agricultural economy at the county level showed a sustained growth trend, with a total increase of 140.13%, but with clear regional differences. The proportion of agricultural output in national GDP gradually decreased, characterized by decreases in eastern China and increases in western China. (3) The coupling types of economic-labor elasticity coefficient are mainly growth in northwest China, for both the agricultural economy and labor, and are intensive in southeast China, with growth of the agricultural economy and reduction of agricultural labor. Regions with lagged, fading, and declining coupling types are generally coincident with the high incidence of poverty in China. However, different coupling types had a positive developing trend for 1991-2010. Finally, based on the coupling types and spatial distribution characteristics of economic-labor elasticity coefficients, some policy suggestions are proposed to promote the integration of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and the vitalization of rural economies. Keywords: agricultural labor change; agricultural economic development; economic-labor elasticity coefficient; spatio-temporal coupling; rural vitalization 2 The mechanisms driving agricultural labor changes and economic development This study establishes a theoretical framework to characterize the mechanisms driving agricultural labor changes and economic development. We use this framework to explore the

Coupling Relationship between Agricultural Labor and Agricultural Production Against the Background of Rural Shrinkage: A Case Study of Songnen Plain, China

“…In 2004, China reached the first turning point referred to by Lewis, with the phenomenon of labor shortage and wage increase [56]. However, the amount and proportion of the agricultural labor population in northeastern China increased steadily, which was in contrast to the overall trend of the change in the whole country and was consistent with most previous research results [48][49][50]. From 1995 to 2015, the proportion of the agricultural labor population in northeastern China increased from 29% to 42%.…”

“…The greater the absolute value of the elasticity coefficient, the higher the sensitivity between them. This paper uses the elasticity analysis method, and the elasticity coefficient is constructed with reference to Liu Yansui and other authors' research results [48][49][50]. The coupling relationships between agricultural labor and the cultivated land area, grain yield, and agricultural output value, respectively, were revealed through the index of the grain-labor elasticity coefficient, the cultivated land-labor elasticity coefficient, and the output-labor elasticity coefficient.…”

“…Due to the narrow transfer space in northeastern China, the absorptive capacity of agricultural surplus labor was far lower than the national level, which led to the Songnen Plain facing greater transfer pressure, and the transfer of agricultural labor was still at a lower level from farmers to migrant workers [57]. The "Hu Huanyong Line" is an important dividing line in depicting the change patterns of agricultural labor population and grain yield, and cultivated land area, respectively [48][49][50]. Ge Dazhuan noted that in the pastoral areas and the agro-pastoral ecotones to the west of this line, the coupling relationship between agricultural labor and grain yield was mainly in the same direction.…”

“…With the development of the economy and society, the proportion of agricultural output value to GDP gradually decreased from 25% in 1991 to 10% in 2010. Heilongjiang belongs to the economic growth zone, and the coupling type of OLEC mainly belongs to the growth type and extensive type [50]. For Songnen Plain, there were more extensive counties in 1995-2005.…”

“…On this basis, scholars further revealed the spatiotemporal variation [40][41][42], the comprehensive effect [31,43], and the socioeconomic driving force [44][45][46][47] of agricultural production based on the indicators of grain yield, cultivated land area, and agricultural output value. In recent years, based on the study of rural hollowing, scholars have further explored the relationship between agricultural labor transfer and agricultural production, including the impact of agricultural labor transfer on grain yield, cultivated land area, and agricultural economic development [48][49][50], food security [51], the transformation of agricultural production modes [52], and the time-series change characteristics of agricultural land conversion against agricultural labor transfer, etc. [53] From the existing research regarding the relationship between agricultural labor and agricultural production, few studies reflect the coupling relationship between agricultural labor and agricultural production comprehensively.…”