Algorithm Design of Port Cargo Throughput Forecast Based on the ES‐Markov Model

Abstract

At present, the existing prediction algorithm of a port cargo throughput neglects the correction of the initial value of the cargo series data model, which leads to a large error in a port cargo throughput prediction. Therefore, a prediction algorithm of a port cargo throughput based on the ES-Markov model is designed. A decompose function is used to decompose the time series of a port cargo throughput, and the trend elements of a port cargo throughput are divided into long-term trend, seasonal trend, fluctuation trend, and irregular trend. In this study, the ES-Markov model is introduced, and the initial prediction is obtained by using the cubic exponential smoothing method, and the state transition matrix is obtained by the Markov principle. Based on the results of the time-series analysis and the ES-Markov model, the prediction algorithm of a port cargo throughput is designed. In the experimental design, the Elman neural network is used to construct an experimental sample data model. The monthly cargo throughput data of a certain port for eight months from May 2020 to December 2020 are collected and sorted according to the time series. The experimental results show that the prediction results of the proposed algorithm are closer to the actual value and the fluctuation of the prediction results is less than that of the reference.