An agent-based model of farmer behaviour to explain the limited adaptability of Flemish agriculture

Abstract

Transition projects have been implemented for Flemish agriculture since 2003, but these did not enable a transformation of the agricultural sector. This paper looks at pre-transition scenarios that have been collectively designed by stakeholders of the agricultural sector in 2002. These foresaw decreases in the regional animal stocks in Flanders. However, the real evolution of the sector did not reveal such a decrease. It is assumed that the individual adaptive behaviour of farmers can explain the unexpected stability of the Flemish agricultural sector. A detailed agent-based model has been built to replicate the past evolution, accounting for structural diversity of farmers, heterogeneity in behaviour, and natural resource constraints. The results indicate that different forms of rigidity in the individual behaviour of farmers slow down the adaptation of the agricultural sector. Future transition scenarios should account for these elements in order not to overestimate the speed of change in the sector.

Bridging behavioural factors and standard bio‐economic modelling in an agent‐based modelling framework

“…Although many ABM consider risk or uncertainty (e.g., Bell et al, 2016; Berger et al, 2017; Maes & Passel, 2017), prospect theory has hardly been used in agricultural ABM and it is difficult to compare our results to existing studies. Given the high importance of risk in agricultural production, the consideration of cognitive biases with respect to decision‐making under uncertainty may add an important level of detail to the simulation of agricultural systems (Howley et al, 2017).…”

Considering Farmers’ Heterogeneity to Payment Ecosystem Services Participation: A Choice Experiment and Agent-Based Model Analysis in Xin’an River Basin, China

“…The agent-based model (ABM) is a method developed based on the complex adaptive system, which could capture these iterations [ 54 , 64 ]. It simulates each agent from the bottom up by endowing the micro-subject with certain attributes, behavior rules, and interaction mechanisms to study the phenomenon at the macro-level [ 65 , 66 ]. To observe the influences of the social networks and social trust of farmers, we developed the ABM model with the Net logo 6.2.1 software.…”

Lock-ins and Agency: Towards an Embedded Approach of Individual Pathways in the Walloon Dairy Sector

“…Studies focusing on the dairy sector specifically center on the general context and trends of evolution of the dairy sector in Europe and elsewhere [61], or on the way sustainability is integrated at the farm level [62][63][64] and by the processing actors [65][66][67]. Concerning individual trajectories and their relation with the dairy context, we identified a few studies focusing on the decision-making processes of dairy farmers in reaction to a certain economic context [68,69], or in reaction to the evolution of public policies [70,71]. In both cases, the focus lies on the strategies of farmers regarding their farm models and the way in which they might make it evolve.…”