An agent-based modeling approach to household adaptation for flooding and coastal erosion at Channel-Port aux Basque

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to coastal communities, particularly those reliant on coastal infrastructure. Rising sea levels and increasingly severe weather events endanger coastlines across Canada, a nation with over 243,000 km of coastline. Indigenous communities, with their long history of coastal resource utilization, are especially vulnerable. This study investigates the social, economic, and environmental impacts of coastal erosion and flooding in Channel-Port aux Basques, Newfoundland. Hurricane Fiona’s devastating impact on the community in 2022 underscores the urgency of adaptation strategies. The research employed a multi-pronged approach: data analysis from weather and census sources, a literature review, a vulnerability assessment using established frameworks, and agent-based modeling using NetLogo software. Findings reveal significant social impacts, including displacement, emotional distress, and loss of public spaces. While existing adaptation measures like shoreline armoring offer some protection, their effectiveness in the face of stronger storms and projected sea level rise remains questionable. The agent-based model predicts increased coastal erosion, with households within 8 meters experiencing erosion within the first year at current sea level rise rates. The study recommends developing a comprehensive plan to mitigate coastal erosion risks. Potential solutions include sea walls and promoting sustainable land-use practices that prioritize coastal ecosystems and managed retreat strategies. The research concludes by emphasizing the need for context-specific, participatory adaptation strategies to enhance coastal community resilience in the face of a changing climate.