An aggregate analysis of the AKP vote and electoral continuities in the Turkish party system

Kumbaracibasi, Arda Can

doi:10.1080/14683849.2015.1135062

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…That was the case for the AKP as well in 2002, and because it had ties to pro-Islamist parties of the 1970s and the 1990s, it came into conflict with the secular establishment at times. Kumbaracıbaşı's (2016) findings support the argument that the AKP had managed to build upon the electoral strongholds of such parties. Figure 1 shows comparisons with four pro-Islamist parties (which succeeded each other and had similar ideology and agendas) that the AKP shows positive correlations with.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 70%

“…2011 was taken as the base year for comparison because it was the election where the AKP received its highest share of votes, and it was the election that came before the 2015 elections. Previous research shows that, apart from several occasions where the AKP correlated with the ultra-nationalist party (Nationalist Action Party -Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi -MHP) and once with a center-right party (Motherland Party -Anavatan Partisi -ANAP) the AKP did not display any continuity with center parties in general (Kumbaracıbaşı, 2016). And the ones that showed correlations were never high as those of pro-Islamist parties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

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Analyzing Party Positions and Electoral Dynamics in Turkey

Kumbaracibasi¹

2019

International Journal of Political Science and Urban Studies

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This article examines the June and November 2015 general elections in Turkey -the final elections before Turkey's transition into a presidential system -focusing on the political environment leading up to the elections, the coalition deals and potential coalition scenarios between the two elections and the aftermath of the November elections. The analysis is two-fold: first section looks into the background of electoral politics in Turkey and how policy dimensions of parties changed or stabilized over the years, covering the concepts of coalition potential, party adaptability and survival. The second section looks into electoral geography in Turkey, changes in voting patterns, strategic voting and the discrepancies in numbers in 2015.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 70%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Analyzing Party Positions and Electoral Dynamics in Turkey

Kumbaracibasi¹

2019

International Journal of Political Science and Urban Studies

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“…Empirical evidence supports the differentiation of major parties along these cleavage lines. Kumbaracibasi's (2016) regression models dissected district-level election data from 1950 to 2011, revealing the shaping influence of electoral geography and ideological continuities since the 1970s. JDP votes exhibit connections to pro-Islamist movements of the 70s, underpinned by shared organizational roots and ideological origins.…”

Section: Literature Review: the Determinants Of Electoral Choice In T...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is mostly due to interventions by the military, leading to fragmentation in the center-right and left. From a historical perspective, it is evident that electors are primarily aligned with the center-right and left (Kumbaracibasi, 2016). Another factor is the effects of social cleavages, which are accompanied by differences in socioeconomic structures in the country.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social and economic determinants of electoral behavior in Turkey

Kozal,

Karacuka,

Haucap

2024

REPS

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PurposeIn this study the authors aim to comprehensively investigate the determinants of voting behavior in Turkey, with a specific focus on the dynamics of the center-periphery debate. Mainly, the authors focus on regional voting patterns during the period that is dominated by the Justice and Development Party (JDP/AKP) in the elections. The authors apply the random effects generalized least squares (GLS) methodology, and analyze electoral data covering four pivotal parliamentary elections (2007, 2011, 2015 and 2018) across all 81 provinces (NUTS III regions). The authors individually examine voting dynamics of the four major parties in parliament: the JDP/AKP, the Republican People's Party (RPP/CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (NMP/MHP) and the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP/HDP). The authors contribute to a comprehensive understanding of how socioeconomic cleavages, economic performance, party alignment and social dynamics shape voter preferences in the Turkish context, thereby addressing gaps in the existing literature.Design/methodology/approachThis research employs an ecological study of Turkish NUTS III sub-regions, covering national elections from 2007 to 2018. The authors utilize the random effects GLS method to account for heteroscedasticity and time effects. The inclusion of the June and November 2015 elections enables a comprehensive analysis of the evolving dynamics in Turkish voting behavior. The results remain robust when applying pooled OLS and fixed effect OLS techniques for control.FindingsThe study's findings reveal that economic performance, specifically economic growth, plays a pivotal role in the sustained dominance of the JDP/AKP party. Voters closely associate JDP preference with economic growth, resulting in higher voting shares during periods of economic prosperity. Along with economic growth; share of agriculture in regions' GDP, female illiteracy rate, old population rate, net domestic migration, terrorism and party alignment are also influential factors in the Turkish case. Furthermore, differences among sociocultural groups, and East–West dichotomy seem to be important factors that reveal the impact of social cleavages to understand electoral choice in Turkey.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature by offering a comprehensive multidimensional analysis of electoral behavior in Turkey, focusing on the JDP/AKP dominance period. The main contribution of this study is its multidimensional perspective on the power bases of all main parties, considering key voter choice theories (cleavages, party alignment and retrospective economic performance voting) that have not been systematically analyzed in prior research. The main research question of this study is to examine which factors affect voting behavior in Turkey and how the dynamics of center-periphery or eastern-western region voting behavior under the JDP hegemony can be explained. The contribution of this study consists not only in its empirical testing of panel data approaches but also in its comprehensive analysis of four major political parties. Building upon existing studies in the literature, this research seeks to extend the understanding of voting dynamics for the four main parties in the parliament — JDP/AKP, RPP/CHP, NMP/MHP and PPDP/HDP — by delving into their dynamics individually, thereby expanding the scope of previous studies. This study aims to make a contribution by not only empirically testing panel data approaches but also conducting a comprehensive analysis of four major political parties. Furthermore, the separate inclusion of the 2015 elections and utilization of a panel data approach enrich the analysis by capturing the evolving dynamics of Turkish voting behavior. The study underscores the significance of socioeconomic factors, economic performance and social cleavages for voters' choices within the context of a dominant party rule.

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Enlargement Strategy of the EU: A Framework for Analysis for the (De)Europeanisation in Turkey

Soyaltin-Colella

Süleymanoğlu-Kürüm

2020

Gender and Politics

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An aggregate analysis of the AKP vote and electoral continuities in the Turkish party system

Cited by 10 publications

References 44 publications

Analyzing Party Positions and Electoral Dynamics in Turkey

Analyzing Party Positions and Electoral Dynamics in Turkey

Social and economic determinants of electoral behavior in Turkey

Enlargement Strategy of the EU: A Framework for Analysis for the (De)Europeanisation in Turkey

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