An agro-meteorological hazard analysis for risk management in a Mediterranean area: a case study in Southern Italy (Campania Region)

Abstract

Agriculture is highly dependent on environmental, climate and weather conditions and on extreme weather events leading to natural disasters. Such events are more and more frequent in Italy, and in the last decades huge public investments were dedicated to risk management policies in agriculture. In order to set an adequate weather-related risk assessment, a robust analysis of the hazard is needed, which requires an agro-meteorological approach to detect the potential impacts of weather extremes on agricultural activities. With the aim of assessing the effectiveness of the current risk management policy in catching the main hazards, specific agro-meteorological indices were applied to highlight occurrence, trends, and spatial patterns of extreme events. The analysis was based on reanalysis datasets and focused on a study area in Southern Italy (Campania region) during the 1981–2021 period. The findings are reported in terms of maps and statistics aggregated at administrative unit level (5 provinces) and show a general intensification of weather extremes in the last decades, both in frequency and intensity of the events. The main indications refer to growth rates of heavy precipitation, potentially leading to flood, locally exceeding 3–4 mm/year, an increasing number of months with severe/extreme droughts, mainly concentrated during the growing season. An upward trend was also observed for days with extreme maximum temperatures, which already exceeded or approached 50% between June and September in the 1981–2021 period in most areas. Maximum temperatures above 35 °C are becoming more frequent and in the inner areas they were reached in 10 days in the 2021 summer quarter. On the other hand, no significant trends were detected for late frosts. In terms of policy implications, the results seem to suggest that some extreme weather events can no longer be considered as exceptional at the present time and in a trend perspective, making them less suitable to be addressed through the risk management tools based almost exclusively on the strategy of transferring risks (insurances and more recent mutual funds) both for farmers and for the allocation of public resources. Therefore, the need is underlined for improving the design of the risk management policies to increase farms’ resilience and adaptation to climate change. Moreover, the study highlights the information potential of agro-meteorological indices in supporting evidence-based decision making in agriculture.