An Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone interface earthquake recurrence model from geology and geodesy

Briggs, Rich

doi:10.22541/essoar.170000029.91528205/v2

2023

DOI: 10.22541/essoar.170000029.91528205/v2

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An Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone interface earthquake recurrence model from geology and geodesy

Rich Briggs

Abstract: We present earthquake recurrence estimates from geologic and geodetic data for the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone • Recurrence estimates provide constraints for seismic hazard models • The recurrence estimates indicate that the rates of M w [?] 8 ruptures are higher than previously inferred west of Kodiak Island NOTE: This paper is in press at AGU Books and has USGS BAO approval for publication (IP-152990). The final version may contain copy edits.

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Cited by 1 publication

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The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model

Powers,

Altekruse,

Llenos

et al. 2024

Earthquake Spectra

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US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used extensively for seismic design regulations in the United States and earthquake scenario development, as well as risk assessment and mitigation for both buildings and infrastructure. This 2023 update of the long-term, time-independent Alaska NSHM includes substantial changes to both the earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) and ground motion models (GMMs). The ERF includes numerous additions to the finite-fault model, considers two deformation models, and introduces updated declustering and smoothing algorithms in the gridded background seismicity model. For the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone, megathrust earthquakes occur on an updated structural and segmentation model, and the moment magnitude (M) 8+ rupture and rate model include a logic tree branch that considers slip rates derived from geodetic models of interface coupling. The megathrust model considers multiple models of down-dip width, and magnitudes are computed using newly developed scaling relations. For subduction intraslab events and subduction interface events with M < 7, the 2023 update uses a smoothed seismicity model with rupture depths derived from Slab2. The 2023 model updates GMMs in all tectonic settings using the recently published Next Generation Attenuation Subduction (NGA-Sub) GMMs for subduction interface and intraslab events, and the NGA-West2 GMMs for active crustal settings. Collectively, additions and updates to the Alaska NSHM result in hazard increases across most of south-central Alaska relative to the previous model, published in 2007. These changes are primarily due to the adoption of updated rate models for the large-magnitude interface events and the NGA-Sub GMMs that have much higher aleatory variability (sigma), consistent with global observations, and that include models of epistemic uncertainty.

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The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model

Powers,

Altekruse,

Llenos

et al. 2024

Earthquake Spectra

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

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An Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone interface earthquake recurrence model from geology and geodesy

Cited by 1 publication

References 97 publications

The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model

The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model

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