An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada

Dion, Patrice

doi:10.1007/s11113-017-9440-6

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…and yet must be stable enough to yield a reasonable and not too extreme outcome. Such a challenge appears to be valid for both multiregional and migrant pool models when modeling gross migration ( Dion 2017 ; Rogers 2008 ; Wilson and Bell 2004 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Super Aging in South Korea Unstoppable but Mitigatable: A Sub-National Scale Population Projection for Best Policy Planning

Kim

2020

Spat Demogr

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This research portrays the spatial and temporal progression of super-aging in regions throughout South Korea. Using a single-year population projection considering gross domestic migration, this research identifies which regions will shortly become a super-aged society. A cohort-component method with a migrant pool model is applied. The county-level national population registration data (2000–2018) are aggregated into 37 regions for the model run. In 2020, 16 rural regions will become super-aged societies. By 2029, all 37 regions, including the metropolitan areas, will join the group, with Sejong, the administrative capital, being the last to enter. In brief, the rural areas become super-aged earlier than the metropolitan areas, and within a decade, those 65 years old or older will make up the majority of the national population. Among all the metropolitan areas, Busan, the largest harbor city, will be the first to be super-aged in 2023. Sejong will experience the most radical change between 2020 and 2050. The research outcomes demonstrate that demographic changes in the rural and metropolitan areas are different; hence, the recent population policies, such as promoting fertility, may not work in the rural areas as they have already lost their population momentum due to the extreme and on-going urbanization throughout the nation. The unstoppable aging will pose adverse effects on future citizens (who are mostly senior) both financially and medically. An increase in health care expenditure and a nationwide blood shortage for transfusion are anticipated, for example.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The rationale behind the model is to incorporate both the magnitude of migrant sources and destination attractiveness, where these can vary over time ( Statistics Korea 2017 ). A recent Canadian case study exemplified that such an approach was useful ( Dion 2017 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Super Aging in South Korea Unstoppable but Mitigatable: A Sub-National Scale Population Projection for Best Policy Planning

Kim

2020

Spat Demogr

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“…Plane (1993) demonstrates that, in a multi-regional model, if constant propensities of migration are used, the regional shares converge on a stable distribution which may be implausible. Statistics Canada took this property of Markov Chains seriously and made adjustments to provide negative feedback (Dion 2014). Rees et al (2011) experimented with a model that adopted flow number assumptions for immigration and rate assumptions for emigration which had the effect of reducing net international migration.…”

Section: Subsequent Progress In Migration Estimation and Unsolved Pro...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Alan Wilson – contributions to research on population and migration

Rees

Dennett

2019

Interdisciplinary Science Reviews

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“…This purely mechanical effect is not only counterintuitive, but tended to impede the achievement of varied internal migration assumptions, which are crucial given the high volatility of this component over time. For this reason, the recently released edition of the population projections includes, among other innovations, a remedy to this methodological issue for internal migration that takes into account changes in the population sizes of the regions of destination, which result in more varied projected internal migration patterns for the individual provinces and territories across different scenarios (please see Dion 2014 andBohnert et al 2014b for more details).…”

Section: Projections At the Level Of The Provinces And Territoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Back to the future: A review of forty years of population projections at Statistics Canada

Dion

Galbraith

2015

CSP

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This paper aims to provide an overview of the population projections program at Statistics Canada, including its orientation, its strengths and challenges. We first identify some conceptual issues which have a bearing on how projections should be interpreted and evaluated. Then, we briefly review the past editions of Statistics Canada’s population projections and identify their main strengths and limitations. The evaluation considers the performance of previous projections at the national and provincial/territorial geographic levels and in terms of each of the major components of growth (fertility, mortality, and migration).

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An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada

Cited by 9 publications

References 36 publications

Super Aging in South Korea Unstoppable but Mitigatable: A Sub-National Scale Population Projection for Best Policy Planning

Super Aging in South Korea Unstoppable but Mitigatable: A Sub-National Scale Population Projection for Best Policy Planning

Alan Wilson – contributions to research on population and migration

Back to the future: A review of forty years of population projections at Statistics Canada

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