An Analysis of the Effect of Climate and Weather on Coconut <i>(Cocos Nucifera)</i>

Peiris, T.S.G.; Thattil, R. O.; Mahindapala, R.

doi:10.1017/s0014479700026430

Cited by 25 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…Because of the complexity, it is doubtful if this analysis has generic value. Later, Peiris et al (1995) reviewed the many attempts to develop statistical relationships between climatic factors and nut yield (including button shedding and premature nut fall). This highlighted the difficulties (and weaknesses) in this approach to the development of yield forecasting models.…”

Section: Yield Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

THE WATER RELATIONS AND IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTS OF COCONUT (Cocos nucifera): A REVIEW

Carr

2011

Ex. Agric.

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SUMMARYThe results of research on the water relations and irrigation needs of coconut are collated and summarized in an attempt to link fundamental studies on crop physiology to drought mitigation and irrigation practices. Background information on the centres of origin and production of coconut and on crop development processes is followed by reviews of plant water relations, crop water use and water productivity, including drought mitigation. The majority of the recent research published in the international literature has been conducted in Brazil, Kerala (South India) and Sri Lanka, and by CIRAD (France) in association with local research organizations in a number of countries, including the Ivory Coast. The unique vegetative structure of the palm (stem and leaves) together with the long interval between flower initiation and the harvesting of the mature fruit (44 months) mean that causal links between environmental factors (especially water) are difficult to establish. The stomata play an important role in controlling water loss, whilst the leaf water potential is a sensitive indicator of plant water status. Both stomatal conductance and leaf water potential are negatively correlated with the saturation deficit of the air. Although roots extend to depths >2 m and laterally >3 m, the density of roots is greatest in the top 0–1.0 m soil, and laterally within 1.0–1.5 m of the trunk. In general, dwarf cultivars are more susceptible to drought than tall ones. Methods of screening for drought tolerance based on physiological traits have been proposed. The best estimates of the actual water use (ETc) of mature palms indicate representative rates of about 3 mm d−1. Reported values for the crop coefficient (Kc) are variable but suggest that 0.7 is a reasonable estimate. Although the sensitivity of coconut to drought is well recognized, there is a limited amount of reliable data on actual yield responses to irrigation although annual yield increases (50%) of 20–40 nuts palm−1 (4–12 kg copra, cultivar dependent) have been reported. These are only realized in the third and subsequent years after the introduction of irrigation applied at a rate equivalent to about 2 mm d−1 (or 100 l palm−1 d−1) at intervals of up to one week. Irrigation increases female flower production and reduces premature nut fall. Basin irrigation, micro-sprinklers and drip irrigation are all suitable methods of applying water. Recommended methods of drought mitigation include the burial of husks in trenches adjacent to the plant, mulching and the application of common salt (chloride ions). An international approach to addressing the need for more information on water productivity is recommended.

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Section: Yield Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

THE WATER RELATIONS AND IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTS OF COCONUT (Cocos nucifera): A REVIEW

Carr

2011

Ex. Agric.

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“…Coconut is almost exclusively grown as a rainfed crop in Sri Lanka. Rainfall and temperature are the important climatic factors influencing coconut yield (Peiris et al 1995;Mathes and Kularatne 1996). Future yields in coconut production under six different climate scenarios using integrated crop models (mathematical description of accumulation of coconut biomass in terms of temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and certain soil properties, integrated with SimCLIM climate model) suggest that the projected coconut production after 2040 in all climate scenarios (when other external factors are non-limiting) will not be sufficient to cater to local consumption (Peiris et al 2004).…”

Section: Impacts On Agriculturementioning

confidence: 99%

IWMI Research Report 135

Eriyagama¹,

Smakhtin²,

Chandrapala³

et al. 2010

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The publications in this series cover a wide range of subjects-from computer modeling to experience with water user associations-and vary in content from directly applicable research to more basic studies, on which applied work ultimately depends. Some research reports are narrowly focused, analytical and detailed empirical studies; others are wide-ranging and synthetic overviews of generic problems.Although most of the reports are published by IWMI staff and their collaborators, we welcome contributions from others. Each report is reviewed internally by IWMI staff, and by external reviewers. The reports are published and distributed both in hard copy and electronically (www.iwmi.org) and where possible all data and analyses will be available as separate downloadable files. Reports may be copied freely and cited with due acknowledgment. About IWMIIWMI's mission is to improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment. In serving this mission, IWMI concentrates on the integration of policies, technologies and management systems to achieve workable solutions to real problems-practical, relevant results in the field of irrigation and water and land resources.

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“…Locationspecific predictive models to predict annual coconut yield have been developed using climatic variables alone (e.g. Nambiar, 1969;Reynolds, 1979;Mathew et al, 1991;Peiris et al, 1995;Peiris and Thattil, 1998). Rainfall is the principal climatic variable that affects nut production (Peiris and Thattil, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of seasonal climate information to predict coconut production in Sri Lanka

Peiris

Hansen²,

Zubair³

2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Accurate forecasting of annual national coconut production (ANCP) is important for national agricultural planning and negotiating forward contracts. Climate and the long-term trends (attributed to 'technology') are major factors that determine ANCP. The effect of climate on ANCP of the following year was studied for the seven agro-ecological regions (AER's) in the principal coconut growing areas for the period 19502002. Climate was studied based on seasons aggregated by the monsoon calendar and by quarters that are consistent with the agricultural calendar. The use of quarterly seasons explained more of the variability of ANCP than the use of monsoon based seasons. January-March rainfall in all AER's and July-September rainfall in the wetter regions are positively correlated with the ANCP (p < 0.005). The technology effect was estimated using a log-linear trend model. The regression model integrates both climate and technology effects developed to predict ANCP with high fidelity (R 2 = 0.94). The climate effect was estimated by regressing production data that had been de-trended to remove the technology effects with quarterly rainfall in the year prior to harvest. The most significant predictors were found to be the quarterly rainfall from the AER's in the coconut growing regions that are designated as wet and intermediate. Representative rainfall from each quarter was used in a regression model with corrections for the technology effect. The correlation between observed and predicted values of the ANCP was 0.83 (p < 0.001). The prediction of ANCP for 2003 and 2004 gave errors of only 6.5 and 7.0%. The estimated value of ANCP for 2005 is 2715 million nuts, which is 12% higher than the mean. The lead time of the prediction extends to 15 months but it may be extended with the use of seasonal climate forecasts to 24 months.

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An Analysis of the Effect of Climate and Weather on Coconut (Cocos Nucifera)

Cited by 25 publications

References 1 publication

THE WATER RELATIONS AND IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTS OF COCONUT (Cocos nucifera): A REVIEW

THE WATER RELATIONS AND IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTS OF COCONUT (Cocos nucifera): A REVIEW

IWMI Research Report 135

Use of seasonal climate information to predict coconut production in Sri Lanka

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