An ecosystem modeling approach to predicting cod recruitment

Svendsen, Einar; Skogen, Morten D.; Budgell, W. Paul; Huse, Geir; Stiansen, Jan Erik; Ådlandsvik, Bjørn; Vikebø, Frode; Asplin, Lars; Sundby, Svein

doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2007.07.033

Cited by 23 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Estimates of Model (7) ing recruitment to the population is important as the commercial harvest takes increasingly younger members of the population. The traditional methods of forecasting marine fisheries recruitment from environmental conditions during egg and larval stages have been marginally successful due to the complexity of interacting biological and environmental conditions coupled with the high and variable mortality of these early life history stages , Houde 2008, although there are exceptions (Svendsen et al 2007). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recruitment forecast models for walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma fine-tuned from juvenile survey data, predator abundance and environmental phase shifts

Zhang¹,

Bailey²,

Chan³

2010

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Forecasting recruitment of marine fishes from environmental effects acting upon larvae has proven difficult due to multiple, nonlinear, interacting factors influencing larval survival. We used another approach, which circumvents the period of high egg and larval mortality, and instead improves forecasts from juvenile abundance indices. We compared several statistical recruitment forecast models and demonstrate that an increasing abundance of predators on juvenile walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma, particularly the arrowtooth flounder Atheresthes stomias, which now dominates the groundfish biomass in the Gulf of Alaska, and autocorrelation caused by intercohort interactions strongly affect pollock recruitment during the juvenile phase. Furthermore, the weight of predictor variables changes with threshold criteria, which are linked to phase shifts in the marine environment. Our results indicate that forecasting recruitment of marine fishes can be improved by considering factors that influence survival after the juvenile period, but also needs to account for changes in community structure and phase shifts in the environment, as opposed to only environmental correlates. Inclusion of these factors is consonant with biological knowledge of the species.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recruitment forecast models for walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma fine-tuned from juvenile survey data, predator abundance and environmental phase shifts

Zhang¹,

Bailey²,

Chan³

2010

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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“…Consequently, the net effect of temperature changes may be different, even opposite, according to the status of main prey, competitor, or predator populations. This has recently been examined in several Northeast Atlantic ecosystems, notably the Baltic (Cardinale et al 2009, Lindegren et al 2010, the Barents Sea (Svendsen et al 2007, Stige et al 2010, and the North Sea (Kempf et al 2010).…”

Section: The Stock-recruitment Relationship Is Enhanced By Including mentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal shifts in recruitment dynamics of North Atlantic fish stocks: effects of spawning stock and temperature

Ottersen

Stige²,

Durant³

et al. 2013

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Effects of variation in spawning stock and sea temperature on long-term temporal patterns in recruitment dynamics of 38 commercially harvested fish stocks in the northern North Atlantic were studied. Different statistical models were explored within a Ricker stock-recruitment framework. This includes, in order of complexity, adding a linear temperature term, a nonlinear (smooth) temperature effect, and non-stationarities (trends in intercept or in temperature effect) and finally allowing for a stepwise change (a threshold). The different models were compared in a uniform approach using Akaike's information criterion corrected for small sample size as the model selection criterion. The relationship between recruitment, spawning stock biomass and temperature varied over time. The most frequent alteration in the non-stationary linear models was, for 14 stocks, in the intercept in recruitment success, suggesting a change in pre-recruit mortality over time. Threshold models performed better than the best linear or nonlinear stationary models for 27 of the stocks, suggesting that abrupt changes (maybe even regime shifts) are common. For half of the stocks studied, the temperature effect was statistically significant when added to the model of the relationship between recruitment success and spawning stock biomass. This includes all 6 of the herring stocks studied, with a positive effect for cold-water stocks and negative effect for stocks in the more temperate southern areas. For the 4 plaice stocks analysed, all located towards the centre of the overall distribution range of plaice, a tendency toward recruitment being favoured by lower temperatures was found.

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“…Marine exploitation issues need to be addressed from an ecosystem perspective, that is, using an ecosystem-based management approach (e.g., Svendsen et al, 2007). The long-term vision is to develop the systems required for the study, management, and monitoring of exploited and protected marine species.…”

Section: Marine Ecosystem Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Biogeochemistry and Ecology Into Ocean Data Assimilation Systems

Brasseur¹,

Gruber²,

Barciela³

et al. 2009

Oceanog.

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An ecosystem modeling approach to predicting cod recruitment

Abstract: The NORWECOM ocean model system implemented with the ROMS ocean circulation model has been run to simulate conditions over the last 25 years for the North Atlantic.

Cited by 23 publications

References 33 publications

Recruitment forecast models for walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma fine-tuned from juvenile survey data, predator abundance and environmental phase shifts

Recruitment forecast models for walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma fine-tuned from juvenile survey data, predator abundance and environmental phase shifts

Temporal shifts in recruitment dynamics of North Atlantic fish stocks: effects of spawning stock and temperature

Integrating Biogeochemistry and Ecology Into Ocean Data Assimilation Systems

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