An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Abstract

Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice‐theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions, namely, ART, circumcision, better condoms, and the treatment of other STDs. The efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework complements the insights from epidemiological studies and small‐scale field experiments.

The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining

“…Here, ( s bt and ( s ! t are the Lagrange multipliers associated with constraints (16) and 18, respectively.…”

“…A recovered person maximizes (27) subject to the budget constraint (16). The first-order conditions for consumption and hours worked for a recovered person are the same as in the problem without reinfections.…”

Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial Sir Model with Behavioral Responses

“…Early contributions in this respect include Goenka and Liu (2012), Geoffard and Philipson (1996). Recent work includes Acemoglu et al (2020b), Aguirregabiria et al (2020), Argente et al (2020), Bethune and Korinek (2020), Farboodi et al (2020), Fernandez-Villaverde and Jones (2020), Greenwood et al (2019), Keppo et al (2020), Toxvaerd (2020), as well as several of the papers cited above regarding spatial extensions of SIR; see Bisin and Moro (2020b) for an introduction to formal modeling of forward looking rational choice in SIR.…”

The Welfare Effects of Encouraging Rural-Urban Migration

“…Our paper builds on these by estimating our structural model directly using variation induced by an RCT, in which concerns about endogeneity are even less present. In this sense, our quantitative work is similar to that of Buera, Kaboski, and Shin (2014), who use a macro model to help interpret the general-equilibrium effects of unconditional asset transfer programs, and Greenwood, Kircher, Santos, and Tertilt (2013), who build a general equilibrium model of the AIDS epidemic to complement the many related RCTs.…”