An Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) Metric as a New Metric for Analyzing Elite Soccer Player Performance

Abstract

Introduction. Football analysis is an applied research area that has seen a huge upsurge in recent years. More complex analysis to understand the soccer players’ or teams’ performances during matches is required. The objective of this study was to prove the usefulness of the expected goals on target (xGOT) metric, as a good indicator of a soccer team’s performance in professional Spanish football leagues, both in the women’s and men’s categories. Method. The data for the Spanish teams were collected from the statistical website Football Reference. The 2023/24 season was analyzed for Spanish leagues, both in the women’s and men’s categories (LigaF and LaLiga, respectively). For all teams, the following variables were calculated: goals, possession value (PV), expected goals (xG) and xGOT. All data obtained for each variable were normalized by match (90 min). A descriptive and correlational statistical analysis was carried out. Results. In the men’s league, this study found a high correlation between goals per match and xGOT (R2 = 0.9248) while in the women’s league, there was a high correlation between goals per match (R2 = 0.9820) and xG and between goals per match and xGOT (R2 = 0.9574). Conclusions. In the LaLiga, the xGOT was the best metric that represented the match result while in the LigaF, the xG and the xGOT were the best metrics that represented the match score.