An externally validated clinical-laboratory nomogram for myocardial involvement in adult idiopathic-inflammatory-myopathy patients

Abstract

Objectives This study aimed at identifying clinical and laboratory risk factors for myocardial involvement (MI) in idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs) patients as well as constructing a risk-predicted nomogram for prediction and early identification of MI. Methods An IIMs cohort in southeastern China was constructed, including 504 adult IIMs patients who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, and were hospitalized at four divisions of the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine from January 1st 2018 to April 30st 2022. After dividing patients into the training cohort and the validation cohort, risk factors for MI were identified through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multivariate logistic regression. A risk-predicted nomogram was established and validated internally and externally for discrimination, calibration and practicability. Results In this cohort, 17.7% of patients developed MI and the survival was significantly inferior to that of IIMs patients without MI (P < 0.001). In the training cohort, age > 55 years old (P < 0.001), disease activity > 10 points (P < 0.001), interleukin-17A (IL-17A) > 7.5 pg/ml (P < 0.001), lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) > 425 U/L (P < 0.001), anti-mitochondrial antibodies (AMAs, P = 0.017), and anti-MDA5 antibody (P = 0.037) were significantly correlated with development of MI. A nomogram was established by including the above values to predict MI and was found efficient in discrimination, calibration, and practicability through internal and external validation. Conclusion This study developed and validated a nomogram model to predict the risk of MI in adult IIMs patients, which can benefit the prediction and early identification of MI as well as timely intervention in these patients.