An Improved Stochastic Model for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

Abstract

Most of the existing solutions in cybersecurity analysis has been centered on identifying threats and vulnerabilities, and also providing suitable defense mechanisms to improve the robustness of the cyberspace network. These solutions lack effective capabilities to countermeasure the effect of risks and perform long-term prediction. In this paper, an improved risk assessment model for cyberspace security that will effectively predict and mitigate the consequences of risk was developed. Real-time vulnerabilities of a selected network were scanned and analysed and the ease of vulnerability exploitability was assessed. A Risk Assessment Model was formulated using the synergy of Absorbing Markov Chain and Markov Reward Model. The model was utilized to analyse cybersecurity state of the selected network. The proposed model was simulated using R-Statistical Package, and its performance was evaluated by benchmarking with an existing model, using Reliability and Availability as metrics. The result showed that the proposed model has higher reliability and availability over the existing model. This implied that there is a significant improvement in the assessment of security situations in a cyberspace network.

Stochastic Growth Models for the Spreading of Fake News

“…In Figure 9, we provide some plots of the probability P y,x (t) obtained by means of Equation ( 14). The functions φ(t) and ψ(t) are available in closed form thanks to Equation (17). This allows us to obtain an explicit expression for the conditional variance of X(t), as shown in the following proposition.…”

“…The urgency of the matter has prompted various states, and also private companies, to invest in cybersecurity. In this context, a great deal of scientific research effort has been invested, especially in relation to the proposal of stochastic models with effective predictive capabilities (see, for instance, Abraham and Nair [16], Abimbola et al [17], Paul and Zhang [18], Alandihallaj et al [19]). In addition, the further need to optimize investments in cybersecurity also arises.…”