An Infinite Slope Model Considering Unloading Joints for Spatial Evaluation of Coseismic Landslide Hazards Triggered by a Reverse Seismogenic Fault: A Case Study of the 2013 Lushan Earthquake

Abstract

Coseismic landslides pose a significant threat to the sustainability of both the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of society. This escalation in earthquake frequency has driven a growing interest in regional-scale assessment techniques for these landslides. The widely adopted infinite slope model, introduced by Newmark, is commonly utilized to assess coseismic landslide hazards. However, this conventional model falls short of capturing the influence of rock mass structure on slope stability. A novel methodology was previously introduced, considering the roughness of potential slide surfaces on the inner slope, offering a fresh perspective on coseismic landslide hazard mapping. In this paper, the proposed method is recalibrated using new datasets from the 2013 Lushan earthquake. The datasets encompass geological units, peak ground acceleration (PGA), and a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM), rasterized at a grid spacing of 30 m. They are integrated within an infinite slope model, employing Newmark’s permanent deformation analysis. This integration enables the estimation of coseismic displacement in each grid area resulting from the 2013 Lushan earthquake. To validate the model, the simulated displacements are compared with the inventory of landslides triggered by the Lushan earthquake, allowing the derivation of a confidence level function that correlates predicted displacement with the spatial variation of coseismic landslides. Ultimately, a hazard map of coseismic landslides is generated based on the values of the certainty factor. The analysis of the area under the curve is utilized to illustrate the improved effectiveness of the proposed method. Comparative studies with the 2014 Ludian earthquake reveal that the coseismic landslides triggered by the 2013 Lushan earthquake predominantly manifest as shallow rock falls and slides. Brittle coseismic fractures are often associated with reverse seismogenic faults, while complaint coseismic fractures are more prevalent in strike–slip seismogenic faults. The mapping procedure stands as a valuable tool for predicting seismic hazard zones, providing essential insights for decision-making in infrastructure development and post-earthquake construction endeavors.