An innovative method for trend analysis of monthly pan evaporations

Kisi, Özgür

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.009

Cited by 126 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Innovative trend method (ITM), which is new trend analysis, was first introduced by Sen (2012). He claimed that commonly utilized Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests have some restrictive assumptions, for example, independent structure of the time series, normal distribution, and data length (Kişi, 2015). In this method, time series is split into two equivalent sets.…”

Section: Innovative Trend Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trend analysis of monthly streamflows using Şen's innovative trend method

et al. 2018

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Trend analysis of monthly mean streamflows is essential for better water resources management and planning. In this study, Mann Kendall (MK), Sen's method and Şen's innovative trend method (ITM) were employed in order to examine the possible trends of monthly streamflows obtained from nine stations from three basins (Yakabasi and Derecikviran in Western Black Sea Basin; Durucasu, Sütlüce, Kale and Gomeleonu in Yesilirmak Basin; Şimşirli, Tozköy and Topluca in Eastern Black Sea Basin) located in Black Sea Region of Turkey. Based on the MK, streamflow data of Tozköy Station which is located in western part of the Eastern Black Sea Region showed a significantly increasing trend while a significantly decreasing trend was found for the Yakabasi, Derecikviran, Durucasu and Sütlüce stations which are situated in western part of the Black Sea Region. According to the Sen's trend method, a significantly decreasing trend was seen in Durucasu, Sütlüce, Yakabasi and Derecikviran stations while Tozköy station showed significantly increasing trend. According to the ITM, low-medium values of Tozköy Station indicated slightly increasing trend while low and medium streamflow values of Yakabasi, Derecikviran, Durucasu and Sütlüce stations showed a decreasing trend. High streamflow values of Derecikviran and Sütlüce stations showed a decreasing trend while corresponding values of Yakabasi, Şimşirli and Tozköy stations indicated an increasing trend. It was showed that trends of low, medium, and high data can be easily identified by ITM which has some advantages (having no assumption such as serial relationship, non-normality, and, test number) over the Sen's method and Mann-Kendall test.

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Section: Innovative Trend Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, two statistics might be computed depending on the data length, the S statistics provided by Gilbert (1987) and the Z statistics. S test is utilized for the time series having data points less than 10, whereas normal approximation is utilized for the time series having 10 or more data points (n) (Kişi, 2015).…”

Section: Mann-kendall Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend analysis of monthly streamflows using Şen's innovative trend method

et al. 2018

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“…The review of the literature revealed that even ITA had been used in different studies; its application over China is still at infancy. Furthermore, the literature review revealed that no study had been published on analyzing the streamflow trend in the Yangtze River (Cuntan and Zhutuo stations) by the ITA method [34,[40][41][42]. The trend estimated in the flow of Yangtze River using the MK test in the previous studies may be due to the variability (autocorrelations and cycles) in time series which may not persist for the long-run.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection of the Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Method

Ali

Kuriqi

Abubaker³

et al. 2019

Water

205

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Trend analysis of streamflow provides practical information for better management of water resources on the eve of climate change. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the presence of possible trends in the annual, seasonal, maximum, and minimum flow of Yangtze River at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations in China for the period 1980 to 2015. The assessment was carried out using the Mann–Kendall trend test, and the innovative trend analysis, while Sen’s slope is used to estimate the magnitude of the changes. The results of the study revealed that there were increasing and decreasing trends at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations in different months. The mean annual flow was found to decrease at a rate of −26.76 m3/s and −17.37 m3/s at both stations. The minimum flow was found to significantly increase at a rate of 30.57 m3/s and 16.37 m3/s, at a 95% level of confidence. Maximum annual flows showed an increasing trend in both regions of the Yangtze River. On the seasonal scale, the results showed that stations are more sensitive to seasonal flow variability suggesting a probable flooding aggravation. The winter season showed an increasing flow trend, while summer showed a decreasing trend. The spring flow was found to have an increasing trend by the Mann–Kendall test at both stations, but in the Zhutuo Station, a decreasing trend was found by way of the innovative trend analysis method. However, the autumn flow indicated a decreasing trend over the region by the Mann–Kendall (MK) test at both stations while it had an increasing trend in Cuntan by the innovative trend analysis method. The result showed nonstationary increasing and decreasing flow trends over the region. Innovative trend analysis method has the advantage of detecting the sub-trends in the flow time series because of its ability to present the results in graphical format. The results of the study indicate that decreasing trends may create water scarcity if proper adaptation measures are not taken.

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“…An innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, recently introduced by Şen (, ), has been used for detecting trends in environmental, hydrological and meteorological variables (e.g. Markus et al , ; Ay and Kisi, ; Kisi, ; Onyutha, ; Tabari and Willems, ). Martínez‐Austria et al () analysed temperature and heat wave trends in Northwest Mexico by data linear adjustment, Spearman test and ITA and all of the analyses indicated the existence of a process of heating with increasing maximum temperature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall and extreme values in Shaanxi, China, since the 1950s

Qian

2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

239

109

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Rainfall is a primary component of the water cycle, and its variability is associated with drought and flood events. This study investigates the trends in annual and seasonal rainfall at 14 rainfall stations in Shaanxi Province, China, using an innovative trend analysis (ITA), Mann–Kendall test and linear regression analysis. Moreover, using ITA, annual rainfall is analysed for different rainfall intensities, and seasonal rainfall is analysed for extreme values. The results show non‐uniform trends in rainfall intensities on a regional and seasonal scale. Annual rainfall shows a significant decreasing trend in the Wei River Basin and north of the Loess Plateau. Overall, the trend is reinforced with the increase of rainfall intensity. A few stations show significant trends in seasonal rainfall. Spring rainfall is the major contributor to the decline in annual rainfall. Heavy rainfall (more than 90th percentile) in summer exhibits a marked downward trend mainly in the basin, which makes it possible for flooding to abate along the Wei River. Light rainfall (less than 10th percentile) shows a prevailing increasing trend in summer, but a decreasing trend in other seasons. From north to south, the seasonal trends become clearer and stronger. In terms of management, more attention should be paid to autumn droughts in the Wei River Basin. A quantitative measurement of a trend for ITA is proposed. Comparison of the three methods endorses the ITA method. Moreover, the ITA shows many advantages, such as graphical results and for observing sub‐trends. It is hoped that this study can provide support for water resources planning, for coping with droughts and floods and for future development of the ITA method.

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An innovative method for trend analysis of monthly pan evaporations

Cited by 126 publications

References 31 publications

Trend analysis of monthly streamflows using Şen's innovative trend method

Trend analysis of monthly streamflows using Şen's innovative trend method

Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection of the Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Method

Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall and extreme values in Shaanxi, China, since the 1950s

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