An Integrated Multi-Criteria Approach for Planning Railway Passenger Transport in the Case of Uncertainty

Abstract

The aim of this study is to elaborate on an integrated approach for transport planning in railway passenger transport in the case of uncertainty. The methodology consists of four stages. In the first stage, the parameters of a multi-criteria model in the case of uncertainty were determined. This includes defining the criteria for selection of a transport plan; formulation of the alternatives of the transport plan; formulation of the strategies and probability variants of passenger flow variation for each strategy. In the second stage, the weights of the probability variants of the strategies for change in passenger flow were determined using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. The alternatives of the transport plan were ranked by applying the sequential interactive modeling for urban systems (SIMUS) method based on linear programming. The results for the values of the criterion of ranking obtained through the SIMUS method and the weights of the variants of passenger flow variation calculated with the AHP method were used as input in the expected values in the decision tree. The selection of a suitable alternative in the case of uncertainty was conducted in the third stage by applying the decision tree method. In the fourth stage, verification of the results was made using Laplace’s criterion and Hurwitz’s criterion. The integrated multi-criteria approach was applied for Bulgaria’s railway network. The multi-criteria approach elaborated herein could be used for decision-making in the case of uncertainty about passenger flow; to investigate different strategies of passenger flow variation and to make decisions in case of instability of passenger flow or lack of sufficient travel data.

A Novel Fuzzy SIMUS Multicriteria Decision-Making Method. An Application in Railway Passenger Transport Planning

“…The new fuzzy SIMUS method was applied to evaluate alternatives for a transportation plan for intercity trains in railway passenger traffic. This study uses the criteria and alternatives defined in [47]. The model was tested in the Bulgaria's railway network.…”

“…The SIMUS method was applied to evaluate of railway network performance in countries of the TEN-T Orient-East Med Corridor, [46]. The new integrated approach to decision making in the case of uncertainty based on the SIMUS method was proposed in [47]. The SIMUS, AHP, and decision tree methods were applied for planning railway passenger transport.…”

“…There are different approaches to represent the fuzzy objective function, such as linear, exponential, etc. [47][48][49]. The most used is the linear membership functions due to the possibility to apply linear optimization.…”

Information System and Technology Optimization as a Tool for Ensuring the Competitiveness of a Railway Undertaking—Case Study

“…Sometimes, even the operation employees (engine drivers, conductors, etc.) suggest an improvement themselves, so it is clear that for one person, it is almost impossible to find the optimal solution without mathematical or other methods [72,73]. Regarding this, our research applicates the assignment problem to solve this problematic, as can be seen from the case study.…”

Picture Fuzzy MCDM Approach for Risk Assessment of Railway Infrastructure

“…Sangiorgio et al [51] integrated the AHP method and linear programming approach to estimate the number of accidents and assess the safety of railway networks. Stoilova [52] coupled the AHP and sequential interactive model of urban systems (SIMUS) methods to select railway passenger plans. Stoilova et al [53] used the SIMUS method to compare railway transport systems of different countries.…”