An integrated risk assessment modelling for cargo manifold process on tanker ships under FMECA extended Dempster–Shafer theory and rule-based Bayesian network approach

Sezer, Sukru Ilke; Elidolu, Gizem; Akyüz, Emre; Arslan, Özcan

doi:10.1016/j.psep.2023.04.024

Cited by 16 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…This research provides a novel framework for ma naging and reducing the risk associated with maritime cargo operations. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating various theories and methods to handle complex, uncertain, and dynamic environments, thus improving process safety and environmental protection in marine contexts [23].…”

Section: Engineeringmentioning

confidence: 89%

Integration of FMEA and Bayesian network methods for risk assessment of components delay in ferry ship construction

Ariany,

Pitana,

Vanany

2024

Eureka: PE

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Construction of new ships in Indonesia. In this case study, the construction of a 600 DWT Ro-Ro ferry. The 600 DWT Shipbuilding Project involves various risks that may affect the schedule and results. A risk assessment involving the quality control team, project lead, and production management is carried out to identify and quantify the level of risk and its consequences. The results of this assessment assist in understanding and managing project risk, stress the importance of communication and coordination between teams, and enable better contingency planning and more effective project management. The FMEA calculation method is used to identify potential failure modes, determine the impact of each failure, and calculate a risk score based on the probability and effect of each failure. The Bayesian method updates the likelihood of failure based on new data that appears during the shipbuilding process. FMEA data is taken from the RPN (Risk Priority Number) at the Occurrence value, then weighted against the list of risks. Most risks are considered 'rare' in terms of likelihood and 'insignificant' in terms of consequence, indicating that despite potential obstacles, the impact on the project is expected to be minimal. However, several risks with 'minor' effects have been identified, highlighting the importance of effective risk planning and mitigation. The integration of this method still needs to be improved, especially in the shipping industry. This method can be developed by making applications to control the procurement of materials at the beginning and during the construction and evaluation process at the end. The effort to make the ship construction timely according to the contract answers the shipbuilding challenges that often occur in developing countries

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Section: Engineeringmentioning

confidence: 89%

Integration of FMEA and Bayesian network methods for risk assessment of components delay in ferry ship construction

Ariany,

Pitana,

Vanany

2024

Eureka: PE

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“…Also, they belong to the decision-making problem of multi-objective attributes, and the decision-making information is ambiguous and complex. The assessment methods for such problems mainly include Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) [13], Analytical Network Process (ANP) [14], Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method (FCEM) [15], FMEA [16], Bayesian Network (BN) [17,18], and Truoket theory [19]. Among them, AHP is a classic multi-objective decision-making method, which is widely used in the evaluation of flood disasters [13], hazardous materials transportation [20], the cement industry [21], and other aspects of evaluation, which illustrate the effectiveness of this method.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Laboratory Risk Assessment Based on SHELL-HACCP-Cloud Model

Zhao,

Wei,

Gao

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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With the increasing demand and expanding scale of laboratories in colleges and universities, laboratory accidents frequently occur, seriously impacting personal health, schools, society, and the environment. Scientific and effective risk assessment is crucial to prevent accidents. Therefore, in order to effectively reduce the risk of chemical laboratories and minimize the frequency of accidents. This study employs the combination of the SHELL model and HACCP system to analyze the potential sources of hazards in hazardous chemical laboratories and establish a risk assessment index system. Based on the Cloud model, a dynamic risk assessment model for the laboratory is established to quantitatively evaluate the risk level of the evaluation results. In order to ensure the rationality of the assessment results, the subjective and objective weights are combined by the principle of minimizing information entropy. Case analysis proves the scientific validity of the evaluation results of the model, which can assist laboratory managers in formulating emergency plans and risk management mechanisms to reduce or eliminate the occurrence of experimental accidents. This approach ensures the safe and sustainable development of schools and laboratories, which is conducive to the progress of researchers’ scientific research results.

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HAZOP, FMECA, monitoring algorithm, and Bayesian network integrated approach for an exhaustive risk assessment and real‐time safety analysis: Case study

Nehal,

Mekkakia‐Mehdi,

Lounis

et al. 2024

Process Safety Progress

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Hazard studies are essential in the petrochemical industry to ensure safe operations. This article provides an in‐depth analysis of the hazards associated with a vacuum distillation unit furnace. This study aims to identify probable hazard scenarios related to furnace operation, assess the associated risks, and provide prevention and mitigation strategies. A comprehensive strategy was employed to achieve these objectives, combining two analysis methods: HAZard OPerability (HAZOP) and Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA). This integrated approach enables a comprehensive risk assessment to be carried out and appropriate preventive measures to be taken to maintain safe operations, including renovation work. Then, depending on the results of the two methods, it is essential to constantly evaluate equipment safety, taking into account parameters such as furnace efficiency, tube temperature, and fume temperature. Therefore, a monitoring program has been created in Python, which enables real‐time examination of the furnace's safety with these critical parameters. If safety conditions are compromised, alarms are sent to mitigate risks, particularly in case of a failure. A Bayesian model is also developed to evaluate the algorithm's results and determine renovation and failure case scenarios. This comprehensive approach improves risk assessment's reliability, precision, maintains safe and efficient industrial operations.

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An integrated risk assessment modelling for cargo manifold process on tanker ships under FMECA extended Dempster–Shafer theory and rule-based Bayesian network approach

Cited by 16 publications

References 62 publications

Integration of FMEA and Bayesian network methods for risk assessment of components delay in ferry ship construction

Integration of FMEA and Bayesian network methods for risk assessment of components delay in ferry ship construction

Laboratory Risk Assessment Based on SHELL-HACCP-Cloud Model

HAZOP, FMECA, monitoring algorithm, and Bayesian network integrated approach for an exhaustive risk assessment and real‐time safety analysis: Case study

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