An Unsettled “Stranded Asset Debt”? Proposing a Supply‐Side Counterpart to the “Climate Debt” in a Bid to Guide a Just Transition from Fossil Fuels in South Africa and Beyond

Abstract

The reign of the fossil fuel empire must come to an end if the average global temperature rise is to be meaningfully capped. Accordingly, a myriad of financial and non‐financial stranded assets will be generated in the process. Ample research has explored the implications for a South African fossil transition from a domestic perspective, but a lacuna persists in linking South Africa’s fossil regime to broader international finance flows, and particularly the role that actors from the “global North” should play in phasing out South African fossil fuels. This research finds that such institutions have exacerbated South Africa’s prospective stranded asset exposure, and by doing so, have accrued a Stranded Asset Debt (SAD)—as a supply‐side counterpart to the demand‐side climate debt, which they have also accumulated—perhaps to the tune of at least several dozens of billions of dollars. Although the Paris Agreement is flawed, it embodies language that can be leveraged to settle the SAD “bill”.