An upgraded version of the Eta model

Mesinger, Fedor; Chou, Sin Chan; Gomes, Jorge L.; Jović, Danica; Bastos, Paulo; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Lazić, Lazar; Lyra, André; Morelli, Sandra; Ristic, Ivan; Veljovic, Katarina

doi:10.1007/s00703-012-0182-z

Cited by 148 publications

(118 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…GEF represents a globalization of the regional Eta model (Mesinger, 1974(Mesinger, , 2000Janjić, 1984Janjić, , 1990Janjić, , 1994Mesinger et al, 1988Mesinger et al, , 2012Mesinger and Lobocki, 1991;Black, 1994;Chen et al, 1997;Chou et al, 2000Chou et al, , 2002Chou et al, , 2005Chou et al, , 2012Ek et al, 2003;Bustamante and Chou, 2009;Gomes and Chou, 2010;Pesquero et al, 2010;Doyle et al, 2013;de Andrade Campos et al, 2017;Lyra et al, 2017;Mesinger and Veljovic, 2017;Pilotto et al, 2017). The unique feature of the Eta model is a stepwise formulation of terrain, which was introduced with the idea to reduce the error of pressure gradient force of the sigma system in the presence of steep mountains, but turned out to offer many other advantages.…”

Section: Comparison Of Gef With the Regional Eta Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal range test run with Global Eta Framework

2017

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Abstract. Global Eta Framework (GEF) is a global atmospheric model developed in general curvilinear coordinates and capable of running on arbitrary rectangular quasi-uniform spherical grids, using stepwise ("Eta") representation of the terrain. In this study, the model is run on a cubed-sphere grid topology, in a version with uniform Jacobians (UJ), which provides "equal-area" grid cells, and a smooth transition of coordinate lines across the edges of the cubed-sphere. Within a project at the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (CPTEC), a nonhydrostatic version of this model is under development and will be applied for seasonal prediction studies. This note describes preliminary tests with the GEF on the UJ cubed-sphere in which model performance is evaluated in seasonal simulations at a horizontal resolution of approximately 25 km, running in the hydrostatic mode. Comparison of these simulations with the ERA-Interim reanalyses shows that the 850 hPa temperature is underestimated, while precipitation pattern is mostly underestimated in tropical continental regions and overestimated in tropical oceanic regions. Nevertheless, the model is still able to well capture the main seasonal climate characteristics. These results will be used as a control run in further tests with the nonhydrostatic version of the model.

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Section: Comparison Of Gef With the Regional Eta Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal range test run with Global Eta Framework

2017

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“…Despite of the steep terrain, the surfaces of the coordinate are approximately horizontal, which allows to solve horizontal derivatives more accurately. Dynamics in the actual version of the model are also treated with a finite-volume scheme (MESINGER et al, 2012). Representation of sub-grid physical processes is done using parameterization schemes, such as Betts-Miller-Janjic (JANJIC, 1994) for convective precipitation and Ferrier (FERRIER et al, 2002) for cloud microphysics and model grid scale precipitation.…”

Section: Numerical Weather Forecasts Eta Regional Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Vertical momentum fluxes are also added to the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme, affecting both timing and positioning of the rainfall but without significantly changing its amount (CARVALHO, 2007;MESINGER et al, 2012). Initial and boundary conditions are obtained from the control forecasts of Eta 40 km and NCEP/GFS models.…”

Section: Regional Eta Ensemble Prediction Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble flood forecasting based on operational forecasts of the regional Eta EPS in the Taquari-Antas basin

Siqueira

Collischonn

Fan

et al. 2016

RBRH

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Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) play an important role on operational flood forecasting. Unlike in deterministic approach, which relies on a single prediction of future river flows, these systems can represent the forecast uncertainty and provide a better detection of extreme hydro-meteorological events. In this context, the present study aimed to assess both the quality of ensemble flood forecasts on Taquari-Antas basin and its potential to provide additional information to a local Flood Alert System. The hydrological model MGB-IPH was coupled to the high-resolution meteorological EPS Eta model with five members of different parameterization schemes and boundary conditions, as well as to the deterministic version of Eta regional model. On a single event evaluation, the peak discharge was reasonable well predicted by at least one ensemble member, in nearly all forecasts, with a good prediction of the flood timing for the considered lead times. In a comparison with deterministic forecasts, the ensemble ones showed higher accuracy and higher probability of detection (POD) for the reference thresholds, preserving false alarm rates at reasonably low levels. An overall tendency of underestimation was also identified, with most observations falling between the higher ranks of the ensemble. Furthermore, the combination of previous forecasts (t-12h) with the recent ones leads to a slight increase of ensemble spread and POD, despite the performance reduction in terms of accuracy and bias for the ensemble mean. Results suggest that there is a benefit in having hydrological ensemble forecasts obtained from the high resolution EPS Eta model, which can be used as a complementary information to a local Flood Alert System supporting pre-alert issues and Civil Defense internal planning actions. Keywords: Flood forecasting; Ensemble forecasting; Eta model, MGB-IPH. RESUMOA previsão hidrológica por conjunto tem sido reconhecida como uma ferramenta essencial em diversos sistemas operacionais de previsão de cheias. Diferentemente da abordagem determinística, que disponibiliza apenas uma previsão pontual, a previsão por conjunto permite a representação das incertezas associadas e consequentemente a melhoria na detecção de eventos extremos de cheia. Neste contexto, o presente estudo teve como objetivo verificar a qualidade de previsões hidrológicas por conjunto, em curto prazo, na bacia do rio Taquari-Antas/RS, e o seu potencial para fornecer informação adicional a um sistema de alerta. Para tanto, foi utilizado o modelo hidrológico MGB-IPH acoplado ao EPS Regional Eta de alta resolução, com 5 membros de diferentes parametrizações e condições de contorno, além da previsão determinística do Modelo Regional Eta. Durante a avaliação de eventos singulares recentemente ocorridos na bacia, a vazão máxima foi relativamente bem prevista por pelo menos 1 membro em quase todas as previsões realizadas, inclusive com instante de pico próximo ao observado para as antecedências consideradas. Em uma comparação com previsões ...

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“…Moreover, they highlighted that the individual models should be built and evaluated after a deep analysis of the characteristics of the study region. In that sense, the National Institute for Space Research (INPE, São Paulo, Brazil) started using and developing different versions of the Eta Model [46][47][48][49][50][51] for regional climate simulations and projections in the region at the beginning of the XXI century and thus has an excellent knowledge of the study region [46][47][48][51][52][53][54][55][56]. Based on previous studies [24,51,52], Mourao [27] applied to the La Plata Basin the Eta Regional Climate Model with a grid resolution of approximately 10 km and forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES [57][58][59].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

Sordo‐Ward

Bejarano

Iglesias

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:We identified and analysed droughts in the La Plata Basin (divided into seven sub-basins) for the current period and estimated their expected evolution under future climate projections for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. Future climate projections were analysed from results of the Eta Regional Climate Model (grid resolution of approximately 10 km) forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES over the La Plata basin, and considering a RCP4.5 emission scenario. Within each sub-basin, we particularly focused our drought analyses on croplands and grasslands, due to their economic relevance. The three-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3) was used for drought identification and characterization. Droughts were evaluated in terms of time (percentage of time from the total length of each climate scenario), space (percentage of total area), and severity (SPEI3 values) of cells characterized by cropland and grassland for each sub-basin and climate scenario. Drought-severity-area-frequency curves were developed to quantitatively relate the frequency distribution of drought occurrence to drought severity and area. For the period 2011-2040, droughts dominate the northern sub-basins, whereas alternating wet and short dry periods dominate the southern sub-basins. Wet climate spread from south to north within the La Plata Basin as more distant future scenarios were analysed, due to both a greater number of wet periods and fewer droughts. The area of each sub-basin affected by drought in all climate scenarios was highly varied temporally and spatially. The likelihood of the occurrence of droughts differed significantly between the studied cover types in the Lower Paraguay sub-basin, being higher for cropland than for grassland. Mainly in the Upper Paraguay and in the Upper Paraná basins the climate projections for all scenarios showed an increase of moderate and severe droughts over large regions dedicated to crops and grasses. On the other hand, for the near future, the Lower Uruguay and the River Plata basins showed a decrease of drought severity compared to the current period. Projections suggest an increase in competition among uses in these regions and the need for a potential relocation of certain crops from the northern regions towards cooler regions located in the centre and south. Further research should consider other climate projections and perform high spatial resolution studies in localized areas.

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An upgraded version of the Eta model

Cited by 148 publications

References 48 publications

Seasonal range test run with Global Eta Framework

Seasonal range test run with Global Eta Framework

Ensemble flood forecasting based on operational forecasts of the regional Eta EPS in the Taquari-Antas basin

Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

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