Analysis and Comparison of the Industrial Economic Resilience in the Taihu Lake Basin under the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2018 Sino-US Trade War

Abstract

Since China acceded to the WTO, the industrial economy of urban areas has experienced a prosperous phase. However, disturbed by the global financial crisis and reverse globalization since 2008, the past crude development path has been unsustainable. Therefore, it is urgent and necessary to improve industrial resilience to avoid falling into a declining trap. This study integrates multi-source spatiotemporal information such as enterprise big data and panel data using the methods of GIS spatial analysis, complex network analysis, and multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the industrial economic resilience of Taihu Lake Basin (TLB). Resistance indicators such as resistance sensitivity, industrial land area, and regional economic connections are used to evaluate the resistance ability of the industrial economy in the TLB during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2018 Sino-US trade conflict. Resistance sensitivity and independent innovation ability are introduced to assess the recovery ability after two rounds of shocks, and comprehensive economic resilience is evaluated based on the entropy weighting method. The results show that in the face of the two economic shocks, the industrial economy in the TLB is increasingly vulnerable to external economic shocks and has a significantly stronger ability to adapt to economic shocks. Under successive shocks, the industrial economy of the TLB continues to transition to a new path of innovation, which contributes to higher value-added and more efficient use of industrial land. Shanghai and Suzhou, which not only have shown strong economic resilience of their own but are also centers of independent innovation in the TLB, badly need to further reduce their reliance on low-end manufacturing in the future. Among the other cities, Huzhou and Zhenjiang show the highest level of resilience, while Changzhou, Wuxi, and Jiaxing are at the middle level, and Hangzhou is evaluated as the city with the lowest industrial economic resilience. Changzhou and Wuxi need to further increase the technical complexity of their industrial products, while Jiaxing, Huzhou, and Zhenjiang are supposed to strengthen their economic connections with Shanghai, Suzhou, and Hangzhou to expand the industrial scale further. Although Hangzhou shows the lowest comprehensive resilience, it still has a catalytic role to play in the development of industrial land and the upgrading and transformation of manufacturing in Jiaxing and Huzhou.