Analysis and dynamics of a mathematical model to predict unreported cases of COVID-19 epidemic in Morocco

Abstract

In December 2019, in Wuhan, China, a new disease was detected, and the virus easily spread throughout other nations. March 2, 2020, Morocco announced 1st infection of coronavirus. Morocco verified a total of 653,286 cases, 582,692 recovered, 60,579 active case, and 10,015 as confirmatory fatalities, as of 4 August 2021. The objective of this article is to study the mathematical modeling of undetected cases of the novel coronavirus in Morocco. The model is shown to have disease-free and an endemic equilibrium point. We have discussed the local and global stability of these equilibria. The parameters of the model and undiscovered instances of COVID-19 were assessed by the least squares approach in Morocco and have been eliminated. We utilized a Matlab tool to show developments in undiscovered instances in Morocco and to validate predicted outcomes. Like results, until August 4, 2021, the total number of infected cases of COVID-19 in Morocco is 24,663,240, including 653,286 confirmed cases, against 24,009,954 undetected. Further, our approach gives a good approximation of the actual COVID-19 data from Morocco and will be used to estimate the undetected cases of COVID-19 in other countries of the world and to study other pandemics that have the same nature of spread as COVID-19.

COVID-19 and Tuberculosis: Mathematical Modeling of Infection Spread Taking into Account Reduced Screening

“…It is also worth noting that the fact that undetected cases have a very serious impact on the rate of spread of an infectious disease is presented in the literature (see, e.g., [64,65] for COVID-19), including among migrants [66].…”

Synchronization of Incommensurate Fractional-order King Cobra Chaotic System

“…(a) (b) Figure 2. Bifurcation diagram of the system (3) when q 1 =0.96, q 2 =0.97, q 3 =0.98, b=1, c=5, d=-1, h=-5, k=-6 and (a) a ∈ [0,10], (b) a ∈ [5,8].…”

“…Fractional-order analysis offers new perspectives for observing, modeling, and controlling the nature around us [1]. For this reason, many systems in fields such as physics [2], engineering [3], mathematical biology [4], health [5], computer science [6], and more can be described with the help of fractional derivatives.…”

Mechanistic insights of COVID-19 dynamics by considering the influence of neurodegeneration and memory trace

“…For instance, several mathematical models of COVID-19 have been carried out to understand the transmission patterns [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. The impact of the environment on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 patterns has been studied in the given literature [16,17].…”