Analysis and forecasting of confirmed, death, and recovered cases of COVID-19 infections in Nigeria

Abstract

The coronavirus (COVID-19) disease outbreak was a public health emergency of international concern which eventually evolved into a pandemic. Nigeria was locked down in March, 2020 as the country battled to contain the spread of the disease. By August 2020, phase-by-phase easing of the lockdown was commenced and university students will soon return for academic activities. This study undertakes some epidemiological analysis of the Nigerian COVID-19 data to help the government and university administrators make informed decisions on the safety of personnel and students.The COVID-19 data on confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered were obtained from the website of the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) from April 2, 2020 to August 24, 2020. The infection rate, prevalence, ratio, cause-specific death rate, and case recovery rate were used to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of the pandemic in Nigeria. Exponential smoothing was adopted in modeling the time series data and forecasting the pandemic in Nigeria up to January 31, 2021.The results indicated that the pandemic had infection rate of at most 3 infections per 1 million per day from April to August 2020. The death rate was 5 persons per 1 million during the period of study while recovery rate was 747 persons per 1000 infections. Analysis of forecast data showed steady but gradual decrease in the daily infection rate and death rate and substantial increase in the recovery rate, 975 recoveries per 1000 infections.In general, the epidemiological attributes of the pandemic from the original data and the forecast data indicated optimism in the decrease in the rate of infection and death in the future. Moreover, the infection rate, prevalence and death rate in January 2021 coincided with the predictions based on the analysis. Therefore, the Nigerian government is encouraged to allow universities in the country to reopen while university administrators set up the necessary protocols for strict adherence to safety measures.

Assessing the general health, increase in mental and physical workload among administrative staff of the University of Nigeria due to the COVID-19 pandemic

“…[ 7 – 9 ] The pandemic, which hit Nigeria in late February 2020, necessitated the declaration and enforcement of general lockdown the following March to curtail the spread of the virus. [ 10 ] The lockdown was total as school activities were suspended indefinitely, [ 11 ] but the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, maintained the services of top administrative officers, from grade level 14 and above and those on essential duties (power, water, security, etc), for smooth running of the university community.…”

“…[ 9 , 12 , 13 ] Gradual lifting of the lockdown was initiated in August 2020 while higher institutions were among the last to be lifted, with all administrative staff of the universities resuming full office activities. [ 11 ]…”

“…[9,12,13] Gradual lifting of the lockdown was initiated in August 2020 while higher institutions were among the last to be lifted, with all administrative staff of the universities resuming full office activities. [11] The return to work was a big relief for many administrative staff of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, who have had varying traumatic experiences due to the lockdown and these experiences have taking their toll on their quality of life, mental health, and physical well-being. As pointed out by Laker, [14] employees are distressed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and are at breaking point, believing that the pandemic has severely affected their physical and mental well-being, leading to unprecedented increase in depression, anxiety, etc.…”