Analysis for the Implementation of Surplus Hydropower for Green Hydrogen Production in Ecuador

Abstract

This study investigates the feasibility of utilizing surplus hydropower from Ecuador’s major hydroelectric plants to produce green hydrogen, a clean energy source that can be used to meet a large percentage of energy needs. Given Ecuador’s significant hydropower infrastructure, this approach leverages untapped energy resources for hydrogen production, with potential impacts on decarbonization strategies. A Pareto analysis identified five key hydroelectric plants that contribute the most to the national surplus. Using historical data from 2019 to 2023, a stochastic model was applied to estimate future surplus availability through 2030. The findings indicate that although Ecuador’s surplus hydropower peaked in 2021, the general trend shows a decline, suggesting an urgent need to capitalize on these resources efficiently. The results indicate a projected annual surplus of hydroelectric energy in Ecuador, ranging from 7475 to 3445 GWh over the next five years, which could be utilized for green hydrogen production. Ecuador thus has promising potential to become a green hydrogen producer, enhancing both regional energy security and carbon reduction goals. The reduction in energy availability for hydrogen production is attributed to the increasing energy demand and variable climatic conditions.