Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia

Gocić, Milan; Trajković, Slaviša

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.014

Cited by 1,312 publications

(722 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…As addressed in Table 4, the significant increasing trend in summer was observed for both FAO-56 PM and AHARG ET 0 series at 75 and 92% of the stations, respectively. The Mann-Kendall test detected that approximately 70% of the stations showed a significant decreasing trend in wind speed at the seasonal and the annual scale (Gocic and Trajkovic 2013). Similar results were detected by Jiang et al (2010), who concluded that the fundamental reason for the decreasing trend in wind speed is the change of atmospheric circulation.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 69%

“…These factors may also influence the changes of ET 0 that can be seen at the seasonal scale between the flatlands of northern Serbia (Novi Sad, Palic, Sombor) and the highlands in central and southern Serbia (Kragujevac, Zlatibor, Nis, Vranje). Djordjevic (2008) and Gocic and Trajkovic (2013) found that the most significant increasing trends in the T min and T max series, and the significant decreasing trend in the RH series occurred in summer. This could explain the significant increasing trend in ET 0 in summer (Table 4 and Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate

Gocić

Trajković

2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Statistically significant FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) and adjusted Hargreaves (AHARG) reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) trends at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales were analysed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests at the 1 and 5% significance levels. Meteorological data were used from 12 meteorological stations in Serbia, which has a humid climate, for the period 1980-2010. Web-based software for conducting the trend analyses was developed. All of the trends significant at the 1 and 5% significance levels were increasing. The FAO-56 PM ET 0 trends were almost similar to the AHARG trends. On the seasonal time scale, for the majority of stations significant increasing trends occurred in summer, while no significant positive or negative trends were detected by the trend tests in autumn for the AHARG series. Moreover, 70% of the stations were characterized by significant increasing trends for both annual ET 0 series.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate

Gocić

Trajković

2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…Of the two methods most commonly used, the parametric and nonparametric methods, the latter has been favored over the former [49]. Among the nonparametric methods, the Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test [51,52] has been frequently used to quantify the significance of trends in time series [1,23,[45][46][47][48][49][50][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60]. It is also widely used in environmental science because it is simple, robust, and can cope with missing values and values below a detection limit.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation Trends over Slovakia in the Period 1981–2013

Zeleňáková

Vido

Portela

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:The objective of this paper was to analyze the temporal and spatial trends in annual and seasonal precipitation in Slovakia utilizing 487 gauging station data collected statewide in the period from 1981 to 2013. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test, which has been widely used to assess the significance of trends in hydrological time series, was applied to detect the significant trends. The Theil-Sen (TS) approach was applied to quantify the trend magnitude, and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test was used to detect abrupt temporal trend shifts. In general, precipitation data in the study area have not changed during the last 33 years, and there are no big gaps. However, predominantly increasing trends in precipitation time series were found at most of the gauging stations in Slovakia. The results corroborate previous climatic studies in the area of central Europe. In Slovakia, there is evidence of different rain distribution from the monthly point of view. Decreasing trends were detected in December in the northern part of Slovakia, while the central and southern parts revealed increasing trends. Most of the stations showed increasing summer precipitation trends, especially in July. It is expected that the findings of this comprehensive study of precipitation trends over Slovakia will produce more insights for the understanding of the regional hydrological behavior in Slovakia over the last several decades.

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“…The confidence interval was computed at two significance levels(α = 0.01, α = 0.05)in this study. Based on Gilbert (Gilbert 1987),…”

Section: Sen's Slope Estimatormentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960–2014

Fang

Luo

Lyu

2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47°C/decade, 0.36°C/decade, 0.36°C/decade, 0.35°C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

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Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia

Cited by 1,312 publications

References 33 publications

Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate

Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate

Precipitation Trends over Slovakia in the Period 1981–2013

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960–2014

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