Analysis of Current Informational Aspects of Probable Scenario for the Development of a Military Conflict With the Russian Federation

Abstract

The beginning of the XXI century was characterized by the emergence of a new type of war – information one, when victory is achieved not by destroying the armed forces and the economy of the enemy, but through the impact on his moral and psychological condition. In modern conflicts, methods based on the integrated application of political, economic, informational and other non-military measures based on military force are increasingly used. The combination of these methods is implemented in the concept of hybrid warfare, the leading idea of which consists in achieving political goals with minimal military influence on the enemy through the use of modern information technology based on "soft power" and "hard power". The peculiarity of such a war is that it is conducted in disguise using mostly non-linear tactics and is not aimed at capturing the entire territory of the country, although it is possible to take control of partial territories, but to obtain patronage over the state, which is achieved through influence on the population, politics, business, law-enforcement agencies. A striking example of the implementation of the concept of hybrid war is the actions of the Russian Federation (hereinafter - Russia) against Ukraine. At the same time, Russia's "hybrid policy" is not limited to Ukraine. It also covers Europe and the United States, the EU and NATO.
 In order to analyze the development of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia in the period up to 2035, an analysis was made on the development of the information aspect of relations between Ukraine and other influential regional and world actors on the development of the situation around Ukraine.
 In preparing the forecast, the tools of scenario analysis were used, namely: the analysis of the main influencing factors, which allowed determining the trends of regional development until 2035. This analysis makes it possible to develop a baseline scenario for the development of the situation, provided that the situation around Ukraine over time will not change significantly; the main factors that are difficult to predict and non-collinear are identified.