Analysis of enhanced recovery protocol failure for pancreatic surgery

Abstract

Introduction. Enhanced recovery protocols (ERP) after surgery are evidence-based perioperative management programs aimed at reducing the response to surgical stress and accelerating recovery. These protocols have shown their effectiveness in various surgical sections, including surgical pancreatology. However, in some patients who have undergone pancreatic surgery, these protocols are not effective. The aim of the study was to analyse risk factors for ERP failure during pancreatic surgery, and to develop a predictive model for assessing the risk of ERP failure. Material and methods. A retrospective - prospective two-center study included 122 patients who underwent surgical interventions on the pancreas. ERP was considered unsuccessful if one or more of the following signs were found in a patient: the duration of postoperative hospitalization exceeding 14 days, in-hospital or 30-day mortality, readmission within 30 days. Patients included in the study were divided into two groups: 1) patients who did not have signs of ERP failure - the enhanced recovery group (ER), 2) patients who had signs of ERP failure (non-ER group). The authors evaluated clinical factors that might be associated with the risk of ERP failure. Results. The non-ER group included 46 patients. Univariate and multivariate logistic analysis allowed specifying independent risk factors for ERP failure: age over 70 years (p=0.01), presence of sarcopenia (odds ratio (OR) 4.75, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.7 - 11.9, p=0.01), ASA III score (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 - 2.6, p=0.04), density of the pancreas parenchyma (OR 5.9, 95 % CI 1.8 15.4, p0.01). To develop a score for the risk of ERP failure, each feature was empirically assigned points from 1 to 3 taking into account its severity (the odds ratio value). With a score of 4, the risk of ERP failure was assessed as high, with a score 4, the risk of ERP failure was assessed as low. The sensitivity, specificity and overall accuracy of the developed model were 84.8%, 82.9% and 83.6%, respectively. Conclusions. Based on the study results, the authors developed a scoring prognostic model to evaluate the risk of ERP failure in patients exposed to pancreatic surgery. This model can be used to stratify patients according to their risk of ERP failure (high or low