Analysis of long-term climatic changes at Hodeidah-Yemen during the period between 1984 and 2019

Abstract

Yemen is one of the Arab country that is vulnerable to climate changes, and this is clear from the indicators of impact on water resources, coastal zone environments, etc. This work focuses on studying the climatic variability at Hodeidah city-Yemen during the period between 1984 and 2019. This study aimed to characterize trends in mean monthly, seasonal and annual temperature. To attain these objectives the collected data were analyzed using both parametric (linear regression) and non-parametric (Mann–Kendall, Spearman and Sen's slope estimator tests) methods to detect the trend and the magnitudes of rates of changes of temperature over time. Analysis of data indicates clear climatic fluctuations of temperature. The annual means of temperature during the period of study were varied between 26.9°C and 30.1°C. The warmest years were observed during the more recent years of the study period ( 2005 to 2018). The increasing rate of annual temperature is about + 0.075°C /year, + 0.37°C/5year, + 0.75°C/decade ,+2.53°C, over the whole period of study(1985 to 2019), + 3.7°C/50 year and increase to + 4.85°C in 2050. On a monthly timescale, there are similar magnitudes of rates of change from December to September with highest rates in October and November. The results also showed that most months and seasons have significant positive trends in temperature and (Z-α/2) values of the MK Test > 1.96 and positive value of Sen’s slope estimator indicates significant an increasing trend towards warmer years. Anomalies of temperature confirm significant increasing trends towards warmer years (2000s to 2019).