Analysis of optimal timing of tourism demand recovery policies from natural disaster using the contingent behavior method

Abstract

h i g h l i g h t sThe contingent behavior method is useful for analyzing the tourism demand recovery. Announcing safety information would be most effective policy. Income effects would change from negative to positive during the recovery process. Optimal steps include safety, event, and visitor information, and price discounting. JEL classification: D12 Z30 Z38Keywords: Natural disaster Tourism demand Recovery process Contingent behavior method a b s t r a c t This paper examines the applicability of contingent behavior (hereafter, CB) method for analyzing dynamic processes and efficient policies in tourism demand recovery. The CB questionnaires used for this study used a hypothetical disaster situation of bird flu in Kyoto, Japan. Safety, event, visitor information, and price discounting policies were designed accordingly. Respondents were then asked about their willingness to travel time. The results showed the optimal timing for devising pertinent policies during the year. We found that the first step requires a safety information announcement, within one week, immediately after disaster site decontamination. The second step is the implementation of event information policy within 24th to 36th week after the disaster. The third step constitutes announcing visitor information within the 37th to 52nd week after the second step. The final step is the implementation of price discounting policy, until the 52nd week, immediately after the third step.

The effects of natural disasters on international tourism: A global analysis

“…This was the case for the Christchurch (New Zealand) earthquake (2011), where extensive destruction of the city made tourism impossible, or at best would have led to unsatisfactory tourist experiences, leading Christchurch Canterbury Marketing to de-market Christchurch but promote surrounding regions instead (Orchiston & Higham, 2014). Optimal timing and stages of recovery were examined by Okuyama (2018) for the case of avian flu in Japan.…”

“…More research on 'optimum' recovery timeframes that take into account resident needs, would be useful (e.g. Okuyama, 2018).…”

“…Ruci� nska & Lechowicz, 2014 on dark tourism), and understanding this non-orthodox typology of visitor types could be useful for destination managers. Regardless, marketing activities have to be designed with great care to attract the right types of visitors at the right time, considering potentially ongoing limitations around tourism capacity (Okuyama, 2018;Orchiston & Higham, 2014). Marketing campaigns implemented by businesses, local tourist destinations or national tourism bureaus should ideally align in their messaging and magnitude, implying a particular need for vertical integration following a disaster (Hughey & Becken, 2016).…”

“…Research to date has largely focused on crisis management and disaster risk reduction (Becken & Hughey, 2013;Faulkner, 2001;Ritchie, 2008). In particular, academics and practitioners have been interested in how sustainable development and marketing strategies should include plans to prepare, protect and rebuild a destination after a disaster, both in terms of physical assets and destination image (Aljerf & Choukaife, 2016;Okuyama, 2018). The perceptions of safety is an important aspect of destination image, and different types of risks and events have been studied in the context of visitor travel information seeking and decision making (Sharifpour, Walters, Ritchie, & Winter, 2014;Trumbo et al, 2016;Williams & Bal� a� z, 2015).…”

2D-SAR, Topomer CoMFA and molecular docking studies on avian influenza neuraminidase inhibitors

“…The economic losses were up to 3.3 billion U.S. dollars, and 18 trading partners banning the import of U.S. poultry [ 4 , 5 ]. The outbreak of AI in Miyazaki in Japan in 2010 forced public officials to ban tourists from entering the disaster-stricken areas, then slaughter all the infected birds, causing a loss of about 8.1 billion yen [ 6 ]. On January 27, 2007, a commercial turkey farm reported an H5N1 outbreak in the United Kingdom, leading to a mass culling of poultry in the farm [ 7 ].…”