Analysis of sounding derived parameters and application to severe weather events in the Canary Islands

Molina, David Suárez; Fernández‐González, Sergio; González, Juan Carlos Suárez; Oliver, Albert

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104865

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…For both simulations, the nearest grid point to the real latitude and longitude of each radiosonde was determined, and the corresponding pseudo-sounding (pressure, potential temperature and mixing ratio) at 00 and 12 UTC was obtained at model's original eta levels. This procedure was tested for reanalysis (Lee, 2002) and model data (Molina et al, 2020), and it showed that these pseudo-soundings are able to reproduce reasonably well the atmospheric conditions measured by the soundings.…”

Section: Calculation Of Instability Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the simulation of instability indices over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation

González-Rojí

Carreno-Madinabeitia

Sáenz

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The ability of two downscaling experiments to correctly simulate the instability conditions that can trigger thunderstorms over the Iberian Peninsula is compared in this paper. To do so, three instability indices are evaluated: TT index, CAPE and CIN. The WRF model is used for the simulations. The N experiment is driven by ERA-Interim’s initial and boundary conditions; The D experiment has the same configuration as N, but the 3DVAR data assimilation step is additionally run at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. Eight radiosondes are available over the IP, and the values for these indices calculated from the University of Wyoming were chosen as reference in the validation of both simulations. Additionally, measured variables at different pressure levels from the radiosondes provided byWyoming were used to calculate the three instability indices by our own methodology using the R package aiRthermo. According to the validation, the correlation, SD and RMSE obtained by the experiment D for all the indices in most of the stations are better than those for N. The different methodologies produce small discrepancies between the values for TT, but these are larger for CAPE and CIN due to the dependency of these indices on the initial conditions assumed for the calculation of an air parcel’s vertical evolution. Similar results arise from the seasonal analysis concerning both WRF experiments: N tends to overestimate or underestimate (depending on the index) the variability of the reference values, but D is able to capture it in most of the seasons. The heterogeneity of the indices is highlighted in the mean maps over the Iberian Peninsula. According to those from D, the ingredients for the development of convective precipitation during winter are found along the entire Atlantic coast, but in summer they are located particularly in the Mediterranean coast. The chances of developing thunderstorms in those areas at 12 UTC is much higher than at 00 UTC; The convective inhibition is more extended towards inland at 00 UTC in those areas, which prevents storms from developing. However, high values are observed near Murcia also at 12 UTC.

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Section: Calculation Of Instability Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the simulation of instability indices over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation

González-Rojí

Carreno-Madinabeitia

Sáenz

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…To understand this impact, statistics show that severe weather events caused 74 fatalities between 1995 and Eiserloh, 2014 (Suárez-Molina et al, 2018). According to the CCS ("Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros", a public organization funded by the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness of the Spanish Government), between 1996 and 2018, floods and windstorms in the Canary Islands produced more than 211 million Euros in losses (Suárez-Molina et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model: Assessment of performance in high resolution simulations in complex terrain in the Canary Islands

Molina

Fernández‐González

Montero

et al. 2021

Atmospheric Research

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Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part II: ERA5 Environments Associated with Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes

et al. 2020

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In this study we investigate convective environments and their corresponding climatological features over Europe and the United States. For this purpose, NLDN and ATDnet lightning data, ERA5 hybrid-sigma levels, and severe weather reports from ESWD and SPC Storm Data were combined on a common grid of 0.25° and 1-hour steps over a period 1979–2018. Severity of convective hazards increases with increasing instability and wind shear (WMAXSHEAR), but climatological aspects of these features differ over both domains. Environments over the United States are characterized by higher moisture, CAPE, CIN, wind shear and mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Conversely, 0–3 km CAPE and low-level lapse rates are higher over Europe. From the climatological perspective severe thunderstorm environments (hours) are around 3–4 times more frequent over the United States with peaks across Great Plains, Midwest and Southeast. Over Europe severe environments are the most common over the south with local maxima in northern Italy. Despite having lower CAPE (tail distribution of 3000–4000 J kg-1 compared to 6000–8000 J kg-1 over the United States), thunderstorms over Europe have higher probability for convective initiation given favorable environment. Conversely, the lowest probability for initiation is observed over the Great Plains, but, once a thunderstorm develops, the probability that it will become severe is much higher compared to Europe. Prime conditions for severe thunderstorms over the United States are between April and June, typically from 1200 to 2200 CST, while across Europe favorable environments are observed from June to August, usually between 1400 and 2100 UTC.

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Analysis of sounding derived parameters and application to severe weather events in the Canary Islands

Cited by 5 publications

References 48 publications

Changes in the simulation of instability indices over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation

Changes in the simulation of instability indices over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation

Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model: Assessment of performance in high resolution simulations in complex terrain in the Canary Islands

Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part II: ERA5 Environments Associated with Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes

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