Analysis of spatial and temporal pattern changes and spatial spillover effects of regional agricultural carbon emission efficiency-Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example

Abstract

Studying the temporal and spatial features and ramifications of regional agricultural carbon emission efficiency (ACEE) under a "double carbon" target is very important. This study examined the ACEE of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) from 2001 to 2021 using a Super-efficiency model. Kernel density estimation and Moran's I index were used to analyze the ACEE value from time and space perspectives. A spatial Durbin model was trained to empirically investigate the driving forces and geographic spillover effects of ACEE. From a time perspective, the ACEE of YEB shows a fluctuating upward trend. The ACEE values of Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, and Shanghai City were noticeably higher than the mean value of YEB. From the space perspective, the ACEE value is downstream > midstream > upstream, and the overall spatial distribution pattern of “east high and west low” is presented. The results of the spatial Durbin model show that the ACEE of YEB has a substantial positive knock-on impact. Elements like the mechanization level and agricultural industrial structure have a positive driving effect on the YEB ACEE, while pesticides have an inhibitory effect. These results indicated that giving advanced regions their due as radiation-leading regions, strengthening information communication between regions, and encouraging the overall coordinated development of the YEB ACEE are worthwhile recommendations for future improvements.