Analyzing and forecasting road traffic accidents and their consequences: a case study of the Udmurt republic

Abstract

The article addresses the issue of road traffic accidents and their impact on population mortality and socio-economic processes in the region. Attention is given to the tasks of accident prediction and the assessment of the severity of their consequences. The dynamics of road accidents and their consequences in Udmurt Republic are analyzed using time series. The research reveals variations in the number of accidents over different time periods and seasonal fluctuations. Econometric models are constructed to predict the number of accidents and the severity of their consequences. These models take into account seasonal components, trends, and autoregressive processes. The forecasts for the number of accidents and their severity enable the development of measures for traffic management and road safety.