Analyzing Collision, Grounding, and Sinking Accidents Occurring in the Black Sea Utilizing HFACS and Bayesian Networks

Abstract

This study examines and analyzes marine accidents that have occurred over the past 20 years in the Black Sea. Geographic information system, human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS), and Bayesian network models are used to analyze the marine accidents. The most important feature distinguishing this study from other studies is that this is the first study to analyze accidents that have occurred across the whole Black Sea. Another important feature is the application of a new HFACS structure to reveal accident formation patterns. The results of this study indicate that accidents occurred in high concentrations in coastal regions of the Black Sea, especially in the Kerch Strait, Novorossiysk, Kilyos, Constanta, Riva, and Batumi regions. The formation of grounding and sinking accidents has been found to be similar in nature; the use of inland and old vessels has been highlighted as important factors in sinking and grounding incidents. However, the sequence of events leading to collision-contact accidents differs from the sequence of events resulting in grounding and sinking accidents. This study aims to provide information to the maritime industry regarding the occurrence of maritime incidents in the Black Sea, in order to assist with reduction and prevention of the marine accidents.

Application of the HFACS-PV approach for identification of human and organizational factors (HOFs) influencing marine accidents

“…A sinking accident HFACS-PV case study is presented above as an example. Moreover, Uğurlu et al [5] analysed 37 sinking accidents in the Black Sea with HFACS-PV, which reinforces the idea that the structure is compatible with sinking accidents.…”

“…Substandard Team Members include important nonconformities such as, lack of situational awareness, lack of attention, over-confidence and fatigue. In order to eliminate or reduce marine accidents, these nonconformities should be focused on [5,35]. As stated in studies of Chen et al [23], Mazaheri et al [51] and Graziano et al [52] the second most important sub-category, weather conditions (wind, heavy seas, etc.)…”

“…Safety measures are relatively high in this mode of transport compared to other modes of transport [3,4]. Despite the increasing safety standards and advanced technology, accidents of maritime transport continue to happen [5]. Accidents have a significant impact on the maritime transport sector.…”

“…There are many methods in the literature that can be used to investigate the effect of human error on marine accidents. All of these methods can be collated into three main groups: consecutive models, epidemiological models and systemic techniques [5,15,16]. In consecutive models, accidents are defined as discrete events occurring sequentially and the cause-effect relationship between events is linear [17].…”

Analysis of General Aviation Fixed-Wing Aircraft Accidents Involving Inflight Loss of Control Using a State-Based Approach

“…One way to improve understanding is by modeling accidents. Several researchers have used Bayesian networks to identify causal factors and assess risk (Ancel & Shih, 2012;Ancel et al, 2015;Ayra et al, 2019;Xiao et al, 2020;Uğurlu et al, 2020). Ancel et al (2015) developed an object-oriented Bayesian network (OOBN), based on HFACS, to model Part 121 and 135 LOC-I accidents.…”