Analyzing Google COVID-19 Vaccine Intent Search Trends and Vaccine Readiness in the United States: Panel Data Study (Preprint)

Abstract

BACKGROUND Factors such as anxiety, worry, and perceptions of insufficient knowledge about a topic motivate individuals to seek web-based health information to guide their health-related decision-making. These factors converged during the COVID-19 pandemic and were linked to COVID-19 vaccination decision-making. While research shows that web-based search relevant to COVID-19 was associated with subsequent vaccine uptake, less is known about COVID-19 vaccine intent search (which assesses vaccine availability, accessibility, and eligibility) as a signal of vaccine readiness. OBJECTIVE To increase knowledge about vaccine intent search as a signal of vaccine readiness, we investigated the relationship between COVID-19 vaccine readiness and COVID-19 vaccine intent relative search volume on Google. METHODS We compiled panel data from several data sources in all US counties between January 2021 and April 2023, a time during which those with primary COVID-19 vaccinations increased from <57,000 to >230 million adults. We estimated a random effects generalized least squares regression model with time-fixed effects to assess the relationship between county-level COVID-19 vaccine readiness and COVID-19 vaccine intent relative search volume. We controlled for health care capacity, per capita COVID-19 cases and vaccination doses administered, and sociodemographic indicators. RESULTS The county-level proportions of unvaccinated adults who reported that they would wait and see before getting a COVID-19 vaccine were positively associated with COVID-19 vaccine intent relative search volume (β=9.123; <i>Z</i>=3.59; <i>P</i><.001). The county-level proportions of vaccine-enthusiast adults, adults who indicated they were either already vaccinated with a primary COVID-19 vaccine series or planned to complete the vaccine series soon, were negatively associated with COVID-19 vaccine intent relative search volume (β=–10.232; <i>Z</i>=–7.94; <i>P</i><.001). However, vaccine intent search was higher in counties with high proportions of people who decided to wait and see and lower in counties with high proportions of vaccine enthusiasts. CONCLUSIONS During this period of steep increase in COVID-19 vaccination, web-based search may have signaled differences in county-level COVID-19 vaccine readiness. More vaccine intent searches occurred in high wait-and-see counties, whereas fewer vaccine intent searches occurred in high vaccine-enthusiast counties. Considering previous research that identified a relationship between vaccine intent search and subsequent vaccine uptake, these findings suggest that vaccine intent search aligned with people’s transition from the wait-and-see stage to the vaccine-enthusiast stage. The findings also suggest that web-based search trends may signal localized changes in information seeking and decision-making antecedent to vaccine uptake. Changes in web-based search trends illuminate opportunities for governments and other organizations to strategically allocate resources to increase vaccine uptake. Resource use is part of the larger public policy decisions that influence vaccine uptake, such as efforts to educate the public during evolving public health crises, including future pandemics.