And yet it matters: referendum campaigns and vote decision in Eastern Europe

Abstract

Referendums campaigns are important and earlier research closely analysed their general functioning, effects on turnout, and the importance of media and information for voting behaviour. However, the role of referendum campaigns as such (with all its components) in shaping voting behaviour was widely neglected. This article seeks to partially fill this gap in the literature and argues that referendum campaign is an important predictor of the voting decision as long as people perceive it as informative and follow it. We investigate this effect in the context of three referendums organized in 2015-2016 in Bulgaria, Poland and Slovakia. The results indicate that these two variables explain the decision of citizens to support referendums across different settings. Their effects are consistent and significantly stronger than alternative explanations employed in the literature such as the limited effect of campaigns, second-order elections, partisan cues or amount of information received.

Integrating citizen engagement into evidence-informed health policy-making in eastern Europe and central Asia: scoping study and future research priorities

“…A range of direct democratic innovations in the region imply that this may be occurring, with referendums being the most common means of engaging the electorate. However, the introduction of democratic mechanisms must be matched with commensurate encouragement of a participatory political culture, to ensure an enhancement of the engagement and influence of citizens [ 39 , 59 , 60 ]. For example, political actors have been accused of the “colonization” [ 57 ] or “hijacking” [ 61 ] of democratic exercises, resulting in a lack of genuine improvements to CE [ 60 ].…”

“…However, the introduction of democratic mechanisms must be matched with commensurate encouragement of a participatory political culture, to ensure an enhancement of the engagement and influence of citizens [ 39 , 59 , 60 ]. For example, political actors have been accused of the “colonization” [ 57 ] or “hijacking” [ 61 ] of democratic exercises, resulting in a lack of genuine improvements to CE [ 60 ]. These experiences have delegitimized both the process and the result of these mechanisms, reducing public participation and political trust [ 57 , 62 ].…”

“…Conversely, participatory mechanisms which included a deliberative element were claimed to lead to “rational and just” decisions, which will “be accepted as politically legitimate” [ 56 , 62 ] by both citizens and policy-makers. Furthermore, where deliberation was included in CE activities, it led to numerous other forms of civic engagement [ 63 ] and was considered key in building trust in the political system and between citizens [ 56 , 60 ].…”

“…This does not, however, imply an ambivalent citizenry, with examples of informal political actions occurring in the region even prior to democratization [ 40 , 67 ]. Contemporary acts such as boycotts of referenda to delegitimize or invalidate the outcome have tangible results [ 60 , 61 , 66 ]. Similarly, participation in formal political processes increases following a tangible change brought about by CE [ 58 ].…”

Party Cues and Pre-Campaign Attitudes: Voting Choice in Referendums in Eastern Europe

“…Moreover, people who find a referendum campaign very informative are roughly three times more likely to support the referendum proposals (Gherghina and Silagadze 2019). These findings can be linked to the concept of internal efficacy, or "subjective competence"-individuals' belief in their capacity to understand and participate effectively in politics (Almond and Verba 1963).…”