Anticipating emerging issues for resilient energy systems: wider, deeper and further perspectives

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this study is to explore the long-term, deeper transformations occurring in the wider energy transition to anticipate emerging issues through collective anticipatory intelligence. Design/methodology/approach Through a co-productive research design, the authors collectively scanned and discussed contemporary developments in the Swedish energy transition. The acquired insight was used in a causal layered analysis over three horizons to separate between views and developments in time and space. Findings Findings of this study present current, transitionary and emerging issues and how they emerge from deeper levels such as values and worldviews. These issues are discussed around how underlying changes may change to mitigate them, suggesting three strategies. Practical implications The framed and anticipated issues enable monitoring and proactive response, and the discussion contributes insight to ongoing political debates, as well as implications for managing similar initiatives. Social implications Insights are provided into the changing cultures and values required in a future energy system, showing, e.g. how demand-side response may either come through relinquishing control over consumption or through increased flexibility and change. Originality/value Studying issues of growing concern and novel approaches, this paper should be of interest to practitioners in the energy sector and foresight professionals. It provides a critique and framing of issues to be monitored, adding to the growing library of energy futures studies.