Applicability of a novel mathematical model for the prediction of adult height and age at menarche in girls with idiopathic central precocious puberty

Lopes, Mateus Cavarzan; Ramos, Carolina; Latrônico, Ana Claudia; Mendonca, Berenice; Brito, Vinícius Nahime

doi:10.6061/clinics/2018/e480

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Finally, another drawback of BA assessment is the absence of unanimity when choosing between average and advanced options in the Bayley–Pinneau height prediction table ( 29 ). In order to improve the prediction of adult height provided by BA assessment, several studies have suggested different predictive models in central precocious puberty ( 14 – 16 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to improve the prediction of adult height provided by BA assessment, several studies have suggested different predictive models in central precocious puberty (14)(15)(16).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The uncertainty related to adult height (11) together with the possibility of developing obesity, metabolic disturbances, and polycystic ovary syndrome at later ages (12,13) creates a need for periodic follow-up of these patients. Though different models for predicting adult height have been proposed for other pubertal disorders such as central precocious puberty (14)(15)(16), to our knowledge, no previous publications have designed predictive models of adult height in female IPA that could aid in the followup of these patients. For this reason, we pursued a dual objective in this study: (a) to compare the adult height of a cohort of girls with IPA against their target height and with height-prediction tables for our country and (b) to design a model to predict adult height at IPA diagnosis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adult Height in Girls With Idiopathic Premature Adrenarche: A Cohort Study and Design of a Predictive Model

Mejorado-Molano

Sanz-Calvo²,

Posada-Ayala³

et al. 2022

Front. Endocrinol.

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IntroductionIdiopathic premature adrenarche (IPA) is considered a normal variant of puberty, presenting more commonly in female patients. There are concerns as to whether IPA alters the final height of these girls. Our main objectives were to (a) compare the adult height of girls with IPA against their target height and (b) design a mathematical model to predict adult height at diagnosis in female patients with IPA.Materials and MethodsA cohort study of girls with IPA was conducted from the time of IPA diagnosis until adult height. The following data were collected: target height, perinatal history, anthropometric and biochemical variables and bone age at diagnosis, age at Tanner stage 2 and menarcheal age, and adult height. First, we performed a univariate statistical analysis after which we carried out a multiple linear regression analysis using adult height as the dependent variable.ResultsWe obtained data from 79 female patients diagnosed with IPA with a mean adult height of 164.6 cm (95% CI: 163.36–165.85 cm). The mean follow-up time was 6.60 years. Average age at Tanner stage 2 was 9.71 years. Mean menarcheal age was 11.64 years. There were no significant differences between target height and adult height. Of the several predictive models designed for these patients, one of them, which included bone age, obtained an R2 value of 71%.ConclusionsAlthough slightly advanced puberty was observed among the girls with IPA, their adult height was preserved. The use of predictive models of adult height on diagnosis of IPA could facilitate closer follow-up of girls at risk of reduced adult height.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to improve the prediction of adult height provided by BA assessment, several studies have suggested different predictive models in central precocious puberty (14)(15)(16).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adult Height in Girls With Idiopathic Premature Adrenarche: A Cohort Study and Design of a Predictive Model

Mejorado-Molano

Sanz-Calvo²,

Posada-Ayala³

et al. 2022

Front. Endocrinol.

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“…In a recent study, Lopes et al [ 19 ] applied our mathematical model to 48 girls with idiopathic CPP. Their characteristics are similar to those of the 78 treated included in our model [ 7 ], except for their lower mean age at onset of puberty (5.75 vs 6.42 years) and greater interval time between the onset of puberty and treatment (2 vs 1.42 years).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical model for predicting the adult height of girls with idiopathic central precocious puberty: A European validation

Lemaire

Bénazé

Mul³

et al. 2018

PLoS ONE

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BackgroundA previous single-center study established a mathematical model for predicting the adult height (AH) in girls with idiopathic central precocious puberty (CPP).ObjectiveTo perform internal and external validations by comparing the actual AH to the calculated AH established by this model and to update it.MethodsThe original formula, calculated AH (cm) = 2.21 (height at initial evaluation, SD) + 2.32 (target height, SD) - 1.83 (luteinizing hormone/follicle-stimulating hormone peaks ratio) + 159.68, was established in a sample of 134 girls (group 4) and was applied to additional girls with CPP seen in the same center (group 1, n = 35), in Germany (group 2, n = 43) and in the Netherlands (group 3, n = 72). This formula has been updated based on these extended data, and both versions are available at the following location: http://www.kamick.org/lemaire/med/girls-cpp15.html.ResultsDespite the differences among the 4 groups in terms of their characteristics at the initial evaluation and the percentages of patients treated with the gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogue, they have similar calculated and actual AHs. The actual AHs are 162.2±7.0, 163.0±7.6, 162.4±7.7 and 162.1±5.6 cm in groups 1 to 4, respectively. They are highly correlated with the AHs calculated by the formula established in the original group (group 4), with R at 0.84, 0.67 and 0.69 in groups 1 to 3, respectively. When the actual AHs and the AHs predicted by the Bayley and Pinneau method are compared, the R is 0.76, 0.51 and 0.64 in groups 1 to 3, respectively.The absolute differences between actual AHs and the calculated AHs are greater than 1 SD (5.6 cm) in 15%, 35% and 28% of the patients in groups 1 to 3, respectively.ConclusionThis study validates and updates the previously established formula for predicting AH in girls with CPP. This updated formula can help clinicians to make treatment decisions.

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“…By definition, height predictions are based on bone-age radiographs, which are highly imprecise and subject to substantial variability in interpretation. In addition, bone ages typically over-predict height in CPP [29]. Thus, it is very difficult to accurately predict height outcome for any individual child.…”

Section: Criteria For Treatmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Treatment of Central Precocious Puberty

Eugster

2019

Journal of the Endocrine Society

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Long-acting analogs of GnRH (GnRHas) have been the gold-standard treatment of central precocious puberty (CPP) worldwide and have an enviable track record of safety and efficacy. Recent years have witnessed much growth in the availability of longer-acting and sustained-release forms of GnRHas. Although all available agents appear promising, limited long-term follow-up and/or comparative data are available. In this review, important issues pertaining to the treatment of children with CPP are discussed. In addition to an assessment of the newer extended-release GnRHa formulations, a delineation of factors essential in determining which children should be treated is offered. Outstanding uncertainties in clinical management are highlighted and areas in need of future research identified. Literature searches for this review were performed in PubMed and OVID, with a focus on English-language publications using the terms “central precocious puberty” and “treatment.”

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Applicability of a novel mathematical model for the prediction of adult height and age at menarche in girls with idiopathic central precocious puberty

Cited by 5 publications

References 13 publications

Adult Height in Girls With Idiopathic Premature Adrenarche: A Cohort Study and Design of a Predictive Model

Adult Height in Girls With Idiopathic Premature Adrenarche: A Cohort Study and Design of a Predictive Model

A mathematical model for predicting the adult height of girls with idiopathic central precocious puberty: A European validation

Treatment of Central Precocious Puberty

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