Application of ARIMA model for forecasts analysis of yield and area of peanut in India

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to generate and analyze forecasts of area under Peanut and yield of peanut (in quintal/hectare) in India. The data related to area under the crop and yield per hectare is extracted from Government of India, Directorate of Economics and Statistics from the year 19701-71 to 2017-18. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is used for analysis of the data in MINITAB19 statistical software. Randomness of error terms in the model are tested by using Ljung-Box Chi-Square Statistic and Autocorrelation function and Partial Autocorrelation functions. Forecasts related to yield and area of Peanut along with 95% confidence intervals for the period of next 15 years i.e. from 2018-19 to 2032-33 are generated by fitting an ARIMA model. We observed that even though there is downward trend for area under Peanut, yield quintal per hectare showed upward trend.